I am always struggled to model the changes in gasoline prices as a categorical variable, especially in a small amount of time-series data. The answer to improving the performance of modeling such a dataset can be to combine more than one model. This method of combining and aggregating the predictions ...

Until today, we have examined the supervised learning algorithms; but this time, we will take a look at a different learning method. The algorithm we just mentioned is association rules which is an unsupervised learning method. The algorithm is referred to as market basket analysis as it usually has been ...

In the last article of the current year, we will examine and compare some of the tree algorithms for the classification. The dataset we are going to use for this will be the answers given to the loan applicants and their evaluated features for it. The first algorithm we will ...

Huge lines at gas stations have been seen around Turkey in recent days. Under the reason for this is the rise in the prices so often, in the last few months and the expectation to continue this. Of course, it is known that the rise in the exchange rate (US ...

The higher education students have had trouble being housing in Turkey in recent days. There have been people who even sleep on the streets like a homeless. The government has been accused of investing inadequate dormitories for sheltering the students. Let’s examine the ongoing sheltering problem of students. The ...

Nowadays, every journalist and intellectual talks about a probable early election in Turkey’s ongoing poor economic conditions. But, is it politically right decision to go early election before the officially announced 23 June 2023 in terms of ruling parties? In order to answer this question, we have to choose some variables ...

In recent days, Turkey has been escalated wildfires. The government and the people were In recent days, Turkey has been escalated wildfires. The government and the people were on the alert and mobilized to put out the fires but, they couldn’t for days. A significant part of people thought ...

One of the most frequently asked questions these days is whether the vaccine works in reducing the number of cases and deaths. In order to examine that we will build a function so that we can run for every country we want without repeating the same code block. The dataset ...

The Turkish president thinks that high interest rates cause inflation, contrary to the traditional economic approach. For this reason, he dismissed two central bank chiefs within a year. And yes, unfortunately, the central bank officials have limited independence doing their job in Turkey contrary to the rest of the world. ...

In the previous article, we examined the performances of covid-19 management of some developed countries and we found that the UK was slightly better than others. This time we are going to predict the spread of disease for about a month in the UK. The algorithm we will use for ...

The pandemic continues at full speed in Turkey where I live, because the government doesn’t conduct the process well; the data they provide is so doubtful, and the decisions they made are very inconsistent. So, I wondered about the situation in the other part of the world, especially the ...

In the previous article, we mentioned that we were going to compare dynamic regression with ARIMA errors and the xgboost. Before doing that, let’s talk about dynamic regression. Time series modeling, most of the time, uses past observations as predictor variables. But sometimes, we need external variables that affect ...

Those who follow my articles know that trying to predict gold prices has become an obsession for me these days. And I am also wondering which factors affect the prices. For the gold prices per gram in Turkey, are told that two factors determine the results: USA prices per ounce ...

A couple of months ago, Turkey’s Health Minister announced that the positive cases showing no signs of illness were not included in the statistics. This statement made an earthquake effect in Turkey, and unfortunately, the articles about covid-19 I have wrote before came to nothing. The reason for this ...

Bootstrap aggregating (bagging), is a very useful averaging method to improve accuracy and avoids overfitting, in modeling the time series. It also helps stability so that we don’t have to do Box-Cox transformation to the data. Modeling time series data is difficult because the data are autocorrelated. In this ...

In the previous article, we have tried to model the gold price in Turkey per gram. We will continue to do that to find the best fit for our data. When we chose the KNN and Arima model, we saw the traditional Arima model was much better than the KNN, ...

It is always hard to find a proper model to forecast time series data. One of the reasons is that models that use time-series data often expose to serial correlation. In this article, we will compare k nearest neighbor (KNN) regression which is a supervised machine learning method, with a ...

In my previous article, we analyzed the COVID-19 data of Turkey and selected the cubic model for predicting the spread of disease. In this article, we will show in detail why we selected the cubic model for prediction and see whether our decision was right or not. When we analyze ...

In Turkey, some parts of society always compare Turkey to Germany and think that we are better than Germany for a lot of issues. The same applies to COVID-19 crisis management; is that reflects to true? We will use two variables for compared parameters; the number of daily new cases ...

In the previous article, we examined trends and seasonality in gasoline prices in Turkey. This time we will examine whether the gasoline prices are related to the variables that are thought to affect gasoline prices the most by the Turkish people. One of the variables is the Brent crude oil ...