Articles by Selcuk Disci

Forecasting Freddie Mac with the DeepAR Algorithm

September 27, 2023 | Selcuk Disci

Mortgage rates have been the highest in the US over the last 20 years. Inventory shortage and high inflation have driven home prices up. I have analyzed this situation by taking FMCC as an indicator of the American housing market. I’ve examined the distribution of Freddie Mac(FMCC) before and ...
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Predicting the Real USD/TRY Rates with MARS

April 11, 2023 | Selcuk Disci

The ongoing debate recently in Turkey is that the Turkish government has suppressed US Dollar/Turkish Lira exchange rates (USD/TRY) to prevent economic turmoil. Many authorities in the business, especially exporters, think that the USD/TRY parity should be in the range of 24-25 Turkish Lira. To look through ...
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Food Inflation: Comparing with Interactive Chart of {ggiraph}

March 16, 2023 | Selcuk Disci

According to authorities, up to 205 million are facing food insecurity in about 45 countries. Besides global warming that causes poor rainfall performance, another strong reason to worry about the issue is the Russian invasion of Ukraine which causes trade-related restrictions. I’ve just wondered how this reflects on food inflation. To ...
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Asia Against Dollar: Forecasting with Modeltime

November 14, 2022 | Selcuk Disci

While the US midterm election escalated, the dollar’s performance weakened; especially this situation happened against the Asian currencies. South Korean won(KRW) is the best performer among them. The Chinese yuan(CNY) was behind its counterparts because of their aggressive public health measures related to the zero-COVID protocol. Let’...
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Modeling the Extinction of Species with SVM-Kernel

October 31, 2022 | Selcuk Disci

In the last article, we analyzed carbon emissions and the effects that created them. This time I want to look into another important environmental issue, animal biodiversity; by animals, I mean mammals, birds, fish, reptiles, and amphibians. The metric we are going to be interested in is the living planet ...
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Housing Markets Down: Hierarchical Time Series

September 25, 2022 | Selcuk Disci

For a long time, everybody in Turkey complains about how far the house and rent prices are up. It seems the same situation is true all over the world. This is called the pandemic housing boom in the USA. But this might’ve been coming to the end, according to ...
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CO2 Emissions Comparing and Modeling for Global Warming

August 31, 2022 | Selcuk Disci

Recently, I watched the new Predator movie, Pray, and I loved it. Hence, I’ve fallen into the Predators series, especially the first two movies, again. The Predators in the movie would choose warm planets to hunt because their vision capabilities are based on infrared thermal, which allows them to ...
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Military Expenditure Estimation with RJAGS Simulation

April 29, 2022 | Selcuk Disci

The side effect of the ongoing Russian occupation was that it stimulated countries’ intentions to increase their military budgets. Last month following the invasion, Germany announced a budget of 100 billion € for the restructuring of the army and announced that it would spend %2 of its GDP every year. Of course, it ...
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