Articles by Selcuk Disci

Dynamic Regression (ARIMA) vs. XGBoost

April 1, 2021 | Selcuk Disci

In the previous article, we mentioned that we were going to compare dynamic regression with ARIMA errors and the xgboost. Before doing that, let’s talk about dynamic regression. Time series modeling, most of the time, uses past observations as predictor variables. But sometimes, we need external variables that affect ...
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Backcast a Time Series for Covid-19 Truths

January 25, 2021 | Selcuk Disci

A couple of months ago, Turkey’s Health Minister announced that the positive cases showing no signs of illness were not included in the statistics. This statement made an earthquake effect in Turkey, and unfortunately, the articles about covid-19 I have wrote before came to nothing. The reason for this ...
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Bootstrapping Time Series for Gold Rush

December 14, 2020 | Selcuk Disci

Bootstrap aggregating (bagging), is a very useful averaging method to improve accuracy and avoids overfitting, in modeling the time series. It also helps stability so that we don’t have to do Box-Cox transformation to the data. Modeling time series data is difficult because the data are autocorrelated. In this ...
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Time Series Forecasting: KNN vs. ARIMA

September 29, 2020 | Selcuk Disci

It is always hard to find a proper model to forecast time series data. One of the reasons is that models that use time-series data often expose to serial correlation. In this article, we will compare k nearest neighbor (KNN) regression which is a supervised machine learning method, with a ...
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Turkey vs. Germany: COVID-19

May 31, 2020 | Selcuk Disci

In Turkey, some parts of society always compare Turkey to Germany and think that we are better than Germany for a lot of issues. The same applies to COVID-19 crisis management; is that reflects to true? We will use two variables for compared parameters; the number of daily new cases ...
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Testing the Correlation between Time Series Variables

March 17, 2020 | Selcuk Disci

In the previous article, we examined trends and seasonality in gasoline prices in Turkey. This time we will examine whether the gasoline prices are related to the variables that are thought to affect gasoline prices the most by the Turkish people. One of the variables is the Brent crude oil ...
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