statistics

Le Monde puzzle [#6]

February 17, 2011 | xi'an

A simple challenge in Le Monde this week: find the group of four primes such that any sum of three terms in the group is prime and the overall sum is minimised. Here is a quick exploration by simulation, using the schoolmath package (with its imperfections): A=primes(start=1,end=53)[... [Read more...]

Regional Variation in Law Enforcement Deaths – Part B

February 16, 2011 | admin

I would like to thank Tal Galili for establishing and maintaining the blog aggregator at R-bloggers. This site has been added to their directory and new posts which are tagged with R will now appear on their feed. https://www.r-bloggers.com/ In part a, I presented a series of ... [Read more...]

ABC in London

February 15, 2011 | xi'an

After the very exciting and I think quite successful ABC in Paris meeting two years ago, Michael Stumpf from Imperial College London suggested a second edition in London along the same lines. Michael kindly associated me with the planning of this meeting. It is (logically) called ABC in London (or ... [Read more...]

Reaching 1000

February 14, 2011 | xi'an

This is the 1000th post on the ‘Og! Here are the entries that have had above 1000 views (not viewers) so far: In{s}a(ne)!! 5,353 “simply start over and build something better” 4,345 Julien on R shortcomings 1,966 Sudoku via simulated annealing 1,762 Of black swans and bleak prospects 1,462 Do we need an ... [Read more...]

Modern Science and the Bayesian-Frequentist Controversy

February 14, 2011 | John Myles White

The Bayesian-Frequentist debate reflects two different attitudes to the process of doing science, both quite legitimate. Bayesian statistics is well-suited to individual researchers, or a research group, trying to use all the information at its disposal to make the quickest possible progress. In pursuing progress, Bayesians tend to be aggressive ... [Read more...]

Another Bernoulli factory

February 13, 2011 | xi'an

The paper “Exact sampling for intractable probability distributions via a Bernoulli factory” by James Flegal and Radu Herbei got posted on arXiv without me noticing, presumably because it came out just between Larry Brown’s conference in Philadelphia and my skiing vacations! I became aware of it only yesterday and ... [Read more...]

The cranky guide to trying R packages

February 13, 2011 | John Mount

This is a tutorial on how to try out a new package in R. The summary is: expect errors, search out errors and don’t start with the built in examples or real data. Suppose you want to try out a novel statistical technique? A good fraction of the time ... [Read more...]

Parallel computation [back]

February 12, 2011 | xi'an

We have now received reports back from JCGS for our parallel MCMC paper and they all are very nice and supportive! The reviewers essentially all like the Rao-Blackwellisation concept we developed in the paper and ask for additions towards a more concrete feeling for the practical consequences of the method. ... [Read more...]

Le Monde puzzle [#5]

February 10, 2011 | xi'an

Another Sudoku-like puzzle from the weekend edition of Le Monde. The object it starts with is a 9×9 table where each entry is an integer and where neighbours take adjacent values. (Neighbours are defined as north, west, south and east of an entry.) The question is about whether or not it ... [Read more...]

Model weights for model choice

February 9, 2011 | xi'an

An ‘Og reader. Emmanuel Charpentier, sent me the following email about model choice: I read with great interest your critique of Peter Congdon’s 2006 paper (CSDA, 50(2):346-357) proposing a method of estimation of posterior model probabilities based on improper distributions for parameters not present in the model inder examination, as ... [Read more...]

Merci taxi!

February 9, 2011 | xi'an

I am in Montpellier today for a general meeting of our EMILE ANR grant bi-yearly meeting, discussing ABC model choice and new applications of simulation methods in population genetics, including an upgrade of DIYABC into the 2.0 version. (The above is a picture comparing “true” Bayes factors with ABC versions, commented ... [Read more...]

Latent Gaussian Models im Zürich [day 2]

February 6, 2011 | xi'an

The second day at the Latent Gaussian Models workshop in Zürich was equally interesting. Among the morning talks, let me mention Daniel Bové who gave a talk connected with the hyper-g prior paper he wrote with Leo Held (commented in an earlier post) and the duo of Janine Illian ... [Read more...]

Weight Loss Predictor

February 5, 2011 | al3xandr3

Got for 2010 Xmas a very cool book called the "4 Hour Body"(thanks Jose Santos) written by Tim Ferriss who write a previous favorite of mine about productivity, the 4 hour work week. Its an interesting book, because it has a scientific approach, it ... [Read more...]

Latent Gaussian Models in Zürich [day 1]

February 4, 2011 | xi'an

An interesting first day (for me) at the Latent Gaussian Models workshop in Zürich. The workshop is obviously centred at the INLA approach, with Havard Rue giving a short course on Wednesday then a wide ranging tour of the applications and extensions of INLA this afternoon. Thanks to his ... [Read more...]

Le Monde puzzle [#4]

February 4, 2011 | xi'an

A fairly simple puzzle in this weekend Le Monde magazine: given five points on a line such that their pairwise distances are 1,2,4,…,14,18,20, find the respective positions of the five points over the line and deduce the missing distances. Without loss of generality, we can set the first point at 0 and ... [Read more...]

ABC model choice not to be trusted [3]

January 30, 2011 | xi'an

On Friday, I received a nice but embarrassing email from Xavier Didelot. He indeed reminded me that I attended the talk he gave at the model choice workshop in Warwick last May, as, unfortunately but rather unsurprisingly giving my short span memory!, I had forgotten about it! Looking at the ...
[Read more...]
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