Blog Archives

Evaluation of the 2018 FIFA World Cup Forecast

July 22, 2018
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Evaluation of the 2018 FIFA World Cup Forecast

A look back the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia to check whether our tournament forecast based on the bookmaker consensus model was any good... How surprising was the tournament? Last week France won the 2018 FIFA World Cup in a match against Croatia in Russia, thus delivering an...

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Sankey Diagram for the 2018 FIFA World Cup Forecast

June 10, 2018
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Sankey Diagram for the 2018 FIFA World Cup Forecast

The probabilistic forecast from the bookmaker consensus model for the 2018 FIFA World Cup is visualized in an interactive Sankey diagram, highlighting the teams' most likely progress through the tournament. Bookmaker consensus model Two weeks ago we published our Probabilistic Forecast for the 2018 FIFA World Cup: By adjusting...

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Probabilistic Forecasting for the 2018 FIFA World Cup

May 29, 2018
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Probabilistic Forecasting for the 2018 FIFA World Cup

Using a consensus model based on quoted bookmakers' odds winning probabilities for all competing teams in the FIFA World Cup are obtained: The favorite is Brazil, closely followed by the defending World Champion Germany. Football fans worldwide anticipate the 2018 FIFA World Cup that...

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Distributional regression forests on arXiv

April 9, 2018
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Distributional regression forests on arXiv

Distributional regression trees and forests provide flexible data-driven probabilistic forecasts by blending distributional models (for location, scale, shape, and beyond) with regression trees and random forests. Accompanied by the R package disttree. Citation Lisa Schlosser, Torsten Hothorn, Reto Stauffer, Achim Zeileis (2018). “Distributional Regression Forests for Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasting in...

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BAMLSS paper published in JCGS

January 29, 2018
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BAMLSS paper published in JCGS

Bayesian additive models for location, scale, and shape (and beyond) provide a general framework for distributional regression. Accompanied by the R package bamlss. Citation Nikolaus Umlauf, Nadja Klein, Achim Zeileis (2018). ?...

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GLMM trees published in BRM

January 28, 2018
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GLMM trees published in BRM

Generalized linear mixed-effects model trees, especially for detecting treatment-subgroup interactions in clustered data. Accompanied by the R package glmertree, combining partykit::glmtree and lme4::glmer. Citation Marjolein F...

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Welcome to the redesigned web page

January 27, 2018
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Redesigned the personal web page using a responsive jekyll design with a fresh theme and better-structured content. New web page After half a decade the web page received a reboot with a new theme as well as more and better-str...

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