Climate Change

Global warming since 1995 ‘now significant’

June 11, 2011 | ucfagls

Yesterday (June 11, 2011) the BBC reported on comments by Prof. Phil Jones, of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia (UEA), that the warming experienced by the planet since 1995 was statistically significant. That the trend in … Continue reading → [Read more...]

Parametric Bootstrap Power Analysis of GISS Temp Data

October 24, 2010 | apeescape

Previosly, I calculated a bunch of ad-hoc power curves from GISTEMP data. Power is essentially a reframing of the p-value, to see the significance of the trend lines in the global temps. However, power calculations are inherently very noisy, hence, my ad-hoc way of aggregating the data. Another method is ... [Read more...]

Global Temperature Proxy Reconstructions ~ now with CO2 forcing

August 26, 2010 | apeescape

Previously, I did a simple Bayesian projection of recent temperature using proxy data and the methods shown in McShane and Wyner (2010). I showed that when you take out the last 30 years of data (1969~1998), the projection does not track the recent uptick in temperatures well. The “projection” is a simple unparametric ... [Read more...]

Cherry Picking to Generalize ~ NASA Global Temperature Trends

April 6, 2010 | apeescape

The relatively (to this decade) cool 2008 global temperatures spurred talks of a warming pause, or even global cooling. The claim usually comes from people who cherry picked either data sets and(!)/or start and end points of the global temperature trends to back up their allegation. The blogosphere already has ... [Read more...]

Le Monde rank test

April 4, 2010 | xi'an

In the puzzle found in Le Monde of this weekend, the mathematical object behind the silly story is defined as a pseudo-Spearman rank correlation test statistic, where the difference between the ranks of the paired random variables and is in absolute value instead of being squared as in the Spearman ... [Read more...]

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