Articles by apeescape

Parametric Bootstrap Power Analysis of GISS Temp Data

October 24, 2010 | 0 Comments

Previosly, I calculated a bunch of ad-hoc power curves from GISTEMP data. Power is essentially a reframing of the p-value, to see the significance of the trend lines in the global temps. However, power calculations are inherently very noisy, hence, my ad-hoc way of aggregating the data. Another method is ... [Read more...]

Global Temperature Proxy Reconstructions ~ now with CO2 forcing

August 26, 2010 | 0 Comments

Previously, I did a simple Bayesian projection of recent temperature using proxy data and the methods shown in McShane and Wyner (2010). I showed that when you take out the last 30 years of data (1969~1998), the projection does not track the recent uptick in temperatures well. The “projection” is a simple unparametric ... [Read more...]

Cherry Picking to Generalize ~ NASA Global Temperature Trends

April 6, 2010 | 0 Comments

The relatively (to this decade) cool 2008 global temperatures spurred talks of a warming pause, or even global cooling. The claim usually comes from people who cherry picked either data sets and(!)/or start and end points of the global temperature trends to back up their allegation. The blogosphere already has ... [Read more...]

R Tools for Dynamical Systems ~ R pplane to draw phase planes

April 5, 2010 | 0 Comments

MATLAB has a nice program called pplane that draws phase planes of differential equations models. pplane on MATLAB is an elaborate program with an interactive GUI where you can just type the model to draw the phase planes. The rest you fidget by clicking (to grab the initial conditions) and ... [Read more...]

Lotka-Volterra model ~ intro

March 30, 2010 | 0 Comments

So many know about the Lotka-Volterra model (i.e. the predator-prey model) in ecology. This model portrays two species, the predator (y) and the prey (x), interacting each other in limited space. The prey grows at a linear rate () and gets eaten by the predator at the rate of (). The ... [Read more...]

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