Articles by apeescape

Parametric Bootstrap Power Analysis of GISS Temp Data

October 24, 2010 | apeescape

Previosly, I calculated a bunch of ad-hoc power curves from GISTEMP data. Power is essentially a reframing of the p-value, to see the significance of the trend lines in the global temps. However, power calculations are inherently very noisy, hence, my ad-hoc way of aggregating the data. Another method is ... [Read more...]

Global Temperature Proxy Reconstructions ~ now with CO2 forcing

August 26, 2010 | apeescape

Previously, I did a simple Bayesian projection of recent temperature using proxy data and the methods shown in McShane and Wyner (2010). I showed that when you take out the last 30 years of data (1969~1998), the projection does not track the recent uptick in temperatures well. The “projection” is a simple unparametric ... [Read more...]

Cherry Picking to Generalize ~ NASA Global Temperature Trends

April 6, 2010 | apeescape

The relatively (to this decade) cool 2008 global temperatures spurred talks of a warming pause, or even global cooling. The claim usually comes from people who cherry picked either data sets and(!)/or start and end points of the global temperature trends to back up their allegation. The blogosphere already has ... [Read more...]

Lotka-Volterra model ~ intro

March 30, 2010 | apeescape

So many know about the Lotka-Volterra model (i.e. the predator-prey model) in ecology. This model portrays two species, the predator (y) and the prey (x), interacting each other in limited space. The prey grows at a linear rate () and gets eaten by the predator at the rate of (). The ... [Read more...]

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