# Bayesian

### Will I ever be a bayesian statistician ? (part 1)

January 20, 2011 |

Last week, during the workshop on Statistical Methods for Meteorology and Climate Change (here), I discovered how powerful bayesian techniques could be, and that there were more and more bayesian statisticians. So, if I was to fully understand app... [Read more...]

### JAGS – Bayesian Analysis

December 6, 2010 |

JAGS is used for Bayesian analysis using MCMC and stands for Just Another Gibbs Sampler.  It is an alternative to WinBUGS and can be accessed through R just like WinBUGS (via R2jags or RJags).  It will work on a Mac unlike WinBUGS.  The ...

### Another boring blog

December 2, 2010 |

I recently decided to create two blogs as outlets for my research.  The first (The Richness of Life) focuses more on the organisms I work with as an ecologist and my general interest as a student of natural history.  This blog on Quantitative...

### Bayesian Diabetes Projections by CDC

October 22, 2010 |

Bayesian methods are supporting decisions and news at the national level! The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention summarizes a report published in the journal Population Health Metrics. The news also made it to the national media. The report (JP Boyle, TJ Thompson, EW Gregg, LE Barker, and DF Williamson (2010) “...

### Global Temperature Proxy Reconstructions ~ now with CO2 forcing

August 26, 2010 |

Previously, I did a simple Bayesian projection of recent temperature using proxy data and the methods shown in McShane and Wyner (2010). I showed that when you take out the last 30 years of data (1969~1998), the projection does not track the recent uptick in temperatures well. The “projection” is a simple unparametric ... [Read more...]

### Global Temperature Proxy Reconstructions ~ Bayesian extrapolation of warming w/ rjags

August 22, 2010 |

Update: fixed projection. There are a bunch of “hockey sticks” that calculate past global temps. through the use of proxies when instrumental data is absent. There is a new one out there by McShane and Wyner (2010) that’s creating quite a stir in the blogosphere (here, here, here, here). The ... [Read more...]

### Convergence diagnostics with MCMCglmm

July 5, 2010 |

MCMCglmm does not produce more than one chain. So the way to check convergence is to run the model twice, each with different starting values, then conduct the diagnostic with:gelman.diag(m1$Sol, m2$Sol)

### GLMM using DPpackage

April 9, 2010 |

I was able to fit a semi-parametric Bayesian GLMM model using DPpackage. It took me many hours to sample from the posterior distribution (DPM prior):MCMC scan 1000 of 5000 (CPU time: 18950.080 s)MCMC scan 2000 of 5000 (CPU time: 22510.100 s)M...

### Generalized linear mixed effect model problem

February 16, 2010 |

I am trying to compare cohort difference in infant mortality using generalized linear mixed model. I first estimated the model in Stata:xi:xtlogit inftmort i.cohort, i(code)which converged nicely:Fitting comparison model:Iteration 0:   log likelih...

### MCMCglmm

December 21, 2009 |

This R packages estimates Generalised Linear Mixed Models via MCMC. It provides a number of random error distributions and can be used for multivariate multilevel models (simultaneous equation model).I will do some tests and compare the results to othe...

### R> if (done=TRUE) tweet me!

December 11, 2009 |

Let’s say that you’re fitting a cumbersome model so time is not to waste over a PC staring at the screen half anxious-half bored… Then, you can always leave and go on with meetings and all your daily routine and have R notify you the results! How? We ... [Read more...]

### [S. Lynch] Introduction to Applied Bayesian Statistics and Estimation for Social Scientists

December 4, 2009 |

Well, that’s a good book that you shouldn’t miss “Introduction to Applied Bayesian Statistics and Estimation for Social Scientists”. Why you shouldn’t miss it? Coz, it’s practical and I mean p r a c t i c a l big time!!! I don’t own tons ... [Read more...]

### AMCMC

November 30, 2009 |

It seems to be something I am looking for: an interface between R and C for Bayesian analysis.http://www.probability.ca/amcmc/

### Running JAGS via R2jags

October 20, 2009 |

I finally figure out how to run WinBUGS examples in JAGS via R2jags. JAGS is preferred over WinBUGS for its cross-platform compatibility and performance (it was written in C++).
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