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Bayes vs. the Invaders! Part Four: Convergence

April 28, 2019
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Bayes vs. the Invaders! Part Four: Convergence

Sealed and Buried In the previous three posts in our series delving into the cosmic horror of UFO sightings in the US, we have descended from the deceptively warm and sunlit waters of basic linear regression, through the increasingly frigid, stygian depths of Bayesian inference, generalised linear models, and the...

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Bayes vs. the Invaders! Part Three: The Parallax View

April 17, 2019
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Bayes vs. the Invaders! Part Three: The Parallax View

The Parallax View In the previous post of this series unveiling the relationship between UFO sightings and population, we crossed the threshold of normality underpinning linear models to construct a generalised linear model based on the more theoretically satisfying Poisson distribution. On inspection, however, this model revealed itself to be...

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Bayes vs. the Invaders! Part Two: Abnormal Distributions

April 8, 2019
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Bayes vs. the Invaders! Part Two: Abnormal Distributions

Crossing the Line This post continues our series on developing statistical models to explore the arcane relationship between UFO sightings and population. The previous post is available here: Bayes vs. the Invaders! Part One: The 37th Parallel. The simple linear model developed in the previous post is far from satisfying....

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Bayes vs. the Invaders! Part One: The 37th Parallel

April 3, 2019
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Bayes vs. the Invaders! Part One: The 37th Parallel

Introduction From our earlier studies of UFO sightings, a recurring question has been the extent to which the frequency of sightings of inexplicable otherworldly phenomena depends on the population of an area. Intuitively: where there are more people to catch a glimpse of the unknown, there will be more reports...

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Missing Links: Density of Bigfoot Sightings in North America

October 14, 2018
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Missing Links: Density of Bigfoot Sightings in North America

Sightings of homo sapiens cognatus, or homo sylvestris, are well-recorded, with a particular prevalence in North America. Bigfoot, otherwise known as the Sasquatch, is one of the most widely-reported cryptids in the world; it is the subject of documentaries, film, music, and countless books. The Bigfoot Field Research Organisation has...

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The Shape of the Other: The Evolution of UFO Sightings by Shape

June 20, 2018
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The Shape of the Other: The Evolution of UFO Sightings by Shape

In earlier analyses of the UFO phenomenon, based on the NUFORC dataset, we have examined the global density of sightings, and the relative distribution of sightings against the location of military bases in the United States. All of these analyses have, however, considered individual sightings to be more or less...

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Mapping Paranormal Manifestations in the British Isles

April 10, 2018
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Mapping Paranormal Manifestations in the British Isles

In our last entry we analysed the relative frequency of paranormal manifestations in the British Isles according to the Paranormal Database. The results of that analysis showed that hauntings of various forms are by far the most commonly-reported paranormal encounter in the British Isles, followed by cryptozoological sightings. This is,...

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Paranormal Manifestations in the British Isles

March 17, 2018
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Paranormal Manifestations in the British Isles

The British Isles are ancient, haunted places. Pre-Roman legends and folk songs are filled with dragons, magic, and strange, wild creatures. Spirits, fairies, and all kinds of imps and goblins roam the countryside with intent ranging from the mischievous to the malevolent. Will-o’-the-wisps lead unwary travellers deep into marshes in...

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Are UFOs more commonly seen near US military bases?

February 27, 2018
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Are UFOs more commonly seen near US military bases?

What do they know? Since the Roswell Incident in 1947, UFO’s have been associated with secretive military installations where mysterious craft dart across the night sky. Skeptics might hold that many UFO sightings, far from being extraterrestrial visitors, are better explained as experimental or conventional military craft. Does this association...

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Unveiling the Global UFO Inquirer

February 22, 2018
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Our previous post showed an interactive map of UFO sightings drawn from the NUFORC dataset. Whilst this did allow us to see UFO sightings over time, it remained a relatively crude tool that created a static visualisation for each year. In delving deeper into the NUFORC data, it has become...

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