Blog Archives

Optimize for Expected Profit in Lift Models

July 9, 2018
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Optimize for Expected Profit in Lift Models

hete is the wild west of analytics. no wrong answers yet - Bill Lattner Intro Generally lift models use a Qini coefficient to measure the performance of a model. However this metric is generally an indirect measure of what the user wants to achieve: profit. In this post I’ll discuss a measure of profitability in lift models. A neural network can...

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How Much Have People Made on Bitcoin?

April 2, 2018
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How Much Have People Made on Bitcoin?

Intro: How much has bitcoin made Society? This post will calculate the realized gains of bitcoin (up to year 2013) as a measure of how much society has made off of bitcoin. How are realized gains different from market capitalization? Realized gains measure the amount of money people can claim to have made off of bitcoin. This can be markedly different from...

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November 2017 Auto Sales Predictions

November 26, 2017
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Previous Results Overall car sales for the month 5.7% lower than expected (predicted: 1436262, actual: 1356218). Porsche (new Cayenne and Panamera), Buick (Enclave and LaCrosse showed large gains), and Maserati (Levante) all showed strong growth. Volv...

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October 2017 Auto Sales Predictions

October 28, 2017
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Below are predictions for 10-2017 autosales for each auto brand. I modeled monthley car sales by nameplate (eg Camry, Civic, etc), predicted one step ahead forecast and summed by manufacture. The model is a state-space model with trend and seasonality ...

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Exploring Uncertainty with Bayesian ML

October 22, 2017
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Exploring Uncertainty with Bayesian ML

Introduction: Bayesian machine learning techniques allow us to obtain a posterior density for individual predictions instead of just the mean. This additional information allows us to understand and explore the uncertainty involved. However not all un...

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