Articles by Sweiss' Blog

Optimize for Expected Profit in Lift Models

July 9, 2018 | 0 Comments

hete is the wild west of analytics. no wrong answers yet - Bill Lattner Intro Generally lift models use a Qini coefficient to measure the performance of a model. However this metric is generally an indirect measure of what the user wants to achieve: profit. In this post I’ll ...
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How Much Have People Made on Bitcoin?

April 2, 2018 | 0 Comments

Intro: How much has bitcoin made Society? This post will calculate the realized gains of bitcoin (up to year 2013) as a measure of how much society has made off of bitcoin. How are realized gains different from market capitalization? Realized gains measure the amount of money people can claim to ...
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November 2017 Auto Sales Predictions

November 26, 2017 | 0 Comments

Previous Results Overall car sales for the month 5.7% lower than expected (predicted: 1436262, actual: 1356218). Porsche (new Cayenne and Panamera), Buick (Enclave and LaCrosse showed large gains), and Maserati (Levante) all showed strong growth. Volv... [Read more...]

October 2017 Auto Sales Predictions

October 28, 2017 | 0 Comments

Below are predictions for 10-2017 autosales for each auto brand. I modeled monthley car sales by nameplate (eg Camry, Civic, etc), predicted one step ahead forecast and summed by manufacture. The model is a state-space model with trend and seasonality ... [Read more...]

Exploring Uncertainty with Bayesian ML

October 22, 2017 | 0 Comments

Introduction: Bayesian machine learning techniques allow us to obtain a posterior density for individual predictions instead of just the mean. This additional information allows us to understand and explore the uncertainty involved. However not all un...
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May 5, 2016 | 0 Comments

This is a “hello world” example website for the blogdown package. The theme was forked from @jrutheiser/hugo-lithium-theme and modified by Yihui Xie. [Read more...]

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