Articles by Steven Sabol

Monetary Policy & Credit Easing pt. 7: R Econometrics Tests

January 1, 2012 | Steven Sabol

In post 6 we introduced some econometrics code that will help those working with time-series to gain asymptoticly efficient results.  In this post we look at the different commands and libraries necessary for testing our assumptions and such. Testing our Assumptions and Meeting the Gauss-Markov TheoremIn this section we will seek ... [Read more...]

Monetary Policy and Credit Easing

December 26, 2011 | Steven Sabol

Here at the dancing economist, we wish to educate our followers on the finer points of economics and this includes econometrics and using R. R as mentioned previously is a free statistical software that enables regular people like us to do high end eco... [Read more...]

Assessing the Forecasting Ability of Our Model

September 2, 2011 | Steven Sabol

Today we wish to see how our model would have faired forecasting the past 20 values of GDP. Why? Well ask yourself this: How can you know where your going, if you don't know where you've been? Once you understand please proceed on with the following post.First recall the trend ... [Read more...]

Forecasting In R: A New Hope with AR(10)

September 1, 2011 | Steven Sabol

In our last post we determined that the ARIMA(2,2,2) model was just plain not going to work for us.  Although i didn't show its residuals failed to pass the acf and pacf test for white noise and the mean of its residuals was greater than three whe... [Read more...]

Get those plots

August 14, 2011 | Steven Sabol

Type in the following to get a Q-Q plot and a histogram on top of each otherpar(mfrow=c(2,1))__ hist(dlGDP,prob=T,12)__ lines(density(dlGDP))__ qqnorm(dlGDP)__ qqline(dlGDP)the top graph says that the errors are pretty nicely distributed around...
[Read more...]

Playing In R: Getting Down to Business

August 14, 2011 | Steven Sabol

okay so now we are up and plotting. Let's dive into some analysis.First we want to see if we can use the series so we have to see if its covariance stationary and that means that its mean is constant and also we can't be able to predict the ...
[Read more...]

Playing Around With R

August 14, 2011 | Steven Sabol

okay so today we will start playing around with R and will use GDP as our ginny pig.okay so first do the following:1. DOWNLOAD R2. Create a folder and call it "R" on your desktop.  Then type ingetwd()this will produce the current place where R fin...
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The Road to Default: Whaa???

July 29, 2011 | Steven Sabol

Okay so here is what has been happening:The yield curve has been going through a mad flattening- indicating that investors are "flying to safety" and that a recession may be looming around the corner. Why has it been flattening? Well, a string of bad n...
[Read more...]

A Quick Look At Unemployment

July 21, 2011 | Steven Sabol

Labor market tightness is defined as the vacancies or job openings rate divided by the unemployment rate.  The theory goes that as job openings increase relative to the unemployment rate a tightness is created in that workers get the upper hand in...
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