I recently read an interesting paper that was published last year, by Igor Barbosada Costa, Leandro Balby Marinho and Carlos Eduardo Santos Pires: Forecasting football results and exploiting betting markets: The case of “both teams to score. In the paper … Continue reading → [Read more...]

I got a comment the other day asking about whether it is possible to get the expected number of goals scored from over/under odds, similar to how you can do this for odds for win, draw or lose outcomes. The … Continue reading → [Read more...]

My package for converting bookmaker odds into probabilities is now on available from CRAN. The package contains several different conversion algorithms, which are all accessible via the implied_probabilities() function. I have written an introduction on how you can use the … Continue reading → [Read more...]

I recently read an interesting paper called The Betting Odds Rating System: Using soccer forecasts to forecast soccer by Wunderlich and Memmert. In their paper they develop av variant of the good old Elo rating system. Instead of using the … Continue reading → [Read more...]

I have written a lot about different models for forecasting football results, and provided a lot of R code along the way. Especially popular are my posts about the Dixon-Coles model, where people still post comments, four years since I … Continue reading → [Read more...]