Articles by opisthokonta

Expected goals from over/under odds

September 9, 2020 | opisthokonta

I got a comment the other day asking about whether it is possible to get the expected number of goals scored from over/under odds, similar to how you can do this for odds for win, draw or lose outcomes. The … Continue reading → [Read more...]

Expected goals from bookmaker odds

January 29, 2019 | opisthokonta

I recently read an interesting paper called The Betting Odds Rating System: Using soccer forecasts to forecast soccer by Wunderlich and Memmert. In their paper they develop av variant of the good old Elo rating system. Instead of using the … Continue reading → [Read more...]

Introducing the goalmodel R package

October 30, 2018 | opisthokonta

I have written a lot about different models for forecasting football results, and provided a lot of R code along the way. Especially popular are my posts about the Dixon-Coles model, where people still post comments, four years since I … Continue reading → [Read more...]

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