Should I send my kids back to school?

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To be honest, the main reason for me to send my kids back to school is to keep the household sane. Nevertheless, the decision should be informed by data.


So here we go. I have downloaded the data from the UK government website and filtered the data by region. The UK lock down started 15th March when there were about 6 new cases per day. In the area I am at, the number of daily confirmed cases has come down below 6 per day for some time.

I shall caveat that conservatively, we should check all the surrounding areas and wait for 0 cases for at least 2 weeks for all of them to be safe.

I have schedule a job to update the graph every day to keep an eye on the number. For now and for my family, the risk is definitely worth taking.
#data.table #R #backtoschool #covid19 #parenthood

library(data.table)
library(ggplot2)
data_url <- "https://c19downloads.azureedge.net/downloads/csv/coronavirus-cases_latest.csv"
raw_data <- fread(data_url, check.names = TRUE)
merton_data <- raw_data[
  Area.name == "Merton" &
    Area.type == "Upper tier local authority",,
  ][,Specimen.date := as.Date(Specimen.date)
    ][,c("Specimen.date","Daily.lab.confirmed.cases")][
           order(Specimen.date)
           ]
merton_data <- merge(merton_data,
                     data.table(Specimen.date = seq(
                       min(merton_data[,Specimen.date]),
                       max(merton_data[,Specimen.date]),
                       by = "1 day"
                     )), all = TRUE, by = "Specimen.date")
setkey(merton_data, Specimen.date)
setnafill(merton_data, type = "const", fill = 0,
          cols = c("Daily.lab.confirmed.cases"))
merton_data[,roll_mean := frollmean(Daily.lab.confirmed.cases, n = 7, align = "right")]
m_merton_data <- melt(merton_data, id.vars="Specimen.date",
                      measure.vars = c("Daily.lab.confirmed.cases","roll_mean"))
merton_plot <- ggplot(m_merton_data, aes(x = Specimen.date, y = value, fill = variable, color = variable))+
  geom_bar(data = subset(m_merton_data, variable == "Daily.lab.confirmed.cases"),
           stat = "identity") +
  geom_line(data = subset(m_merton_data, variable == "roll_mean")) +
  labs(x="Specimen Date", y="Number of Confirmed Cases",
      fill = "", color = "") +
  scale_fill_manual(values = c("#ff0000","#000000"),
                    labels = c("Merton # Daily Confirmed cases",
                               "7 day average")) +
  scale_color_manual(values = c("#ff0000","#000000"),
                    labels = c("Merton # Daily Confirmed cases",
                               "7 day average")) +
  scale_x_date(date_breaks = "2 weeks", date_labels = "%Y-%m-%d") +
  theme_bw() %+replace% theme(legend.position = "top",
                              legend.justification = "left")
ggsave(filename = "Merton_COVID.png", merton_plot, width = 10, height = 6)

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