Posts Tagged ‘ risk ’

The basics of Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall

October 23, 2012
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The basics of Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall

Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall are common risk measures.  Here is a quick explanation. Ingredients The first two ingredients are each a number: The time horizon — how many days do we look ahead? The probability level — how far in the tail are we looking? Ingredient number 3 is a prediction distribution of … Continue reading...

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Insights into Quantile Regression from Arthur Charpentier

April 24, 2012
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Insights into Quantile Regression from Arthur Charpentier

At this Monday’s Montreal R User Group meeting, Arthur Charpentier gave an interesting talk on the subject of quantile regression. One of the main messages I took away from the workshop was that quantile regression can be used to determine if extreme events are becoming more extreme. The example given was hurricane intensity since 1978.

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Reshaping the IT world

February 16, 2012
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Reshaping the IT world

During my university time I worked on the IT help desk for a while. One day I received a call from a professor, who said that his printer had stopped working. So I asked him, if there was a message on the display and if he could read it to me. "Oh yes"...

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MAT8886 exchangeability, credit risk and risk measures

February 10, 2012
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MAT8886 exchangeability, credit risk and risk measures

Exchangeability is an extremely concept, since (most of the time) analytical expressions can be derived. But it can also be used to observe some unexpected behaviors, that we will discuss later on with a more general setting. For instance, in a old...

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Misleading Statistics: Too much risk without a financial adviser?

November 22, 2011
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Misleading Statistics: Too much risk without a financial adviser?

This popular article references a report by financial consulting firms that makes a fairly convincing argument (even though they mostly neglect inferential statistics, and some parts of their argument are misleading, or otherwise not convincing) that 401(k) participants who accept "help" from financial experts take less risk and have better returns than those who do

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Review of “Risk and Meaning” by Nicolas Bouleau

September 5, 2011
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Review of “Risk and Meaning” by Nicolas Bouleau

The subtitle is: Adversaries in Art, Science and Philosophy. Executive Summary Genius or madness? I haven’t decided. Irreversibility of interpretation The book drives home that once we decide how something is we can’t go back to our state of innocence. Figures 1 through 3 exhibit this idea via a randomly generated polygon.  Look at Figure … Continue reading...

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Factor models of variance in finance

March 7, 2011
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Factor models of variance in finance

In “What the hell is a variance matrix?” I talked about the basics of variance matrices and highlighted challenges for estimating them in finance.  Here we look more deeply at the most popular estimation technique. Models for variance matrices The types of variance estimates that are used in finance can be classified as: Sample estimate … Continue reading...

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Normal market accidents

January 17, 2011
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Normal market accidents

We think of accidents as abnormal events, but there is “normal accident” theory.  We don’t think of accidents happening in markets, but they do.  That’s why it’s called a market crash. For normal accidents to come into play, two conditions need to hold: the system is complex the system is tightly coupled Certainly the financial … Continue reading...

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Blog year 2010 in review

December 30, 2010
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Blog year 2010 in review

The blog year started in August and consists of 30-something posts.  Here is a summary. Quant concepts backtesting: Backtesting — almost wordless cointegration: American TV does cointegration efficient frontier: Anomalies meet volatility implied alpha: Implied alpha — almost wordless portfolio theory: Ancient portfolio theory random walk: The tightrope of the random walk returns: A tale … Continue reading...

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Tennis and risk management

December 16, 2010
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Tennis and risk management

As mentioned already here, while we were going to Québec City for the workshop, we had interesting discussions in the car, and Maciej mentioned an article recently published in The Actuary, Hence, I wanted to discuss (extremely) rare event probabi...

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