Blog Archives

It’s not the heat, it’s the heat index

August 15, 2018
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It’s not the heat, it’s the heat index

PERCEIVED TEMPERATURE Click to enlarge (We got a request for a Celsius version of this post and since we are a full service website we created one and put it here). So, we were wondering, what’s this heat index we hear about? We went to the Wikipedia article on it. It is an index that The post It’s not...

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Random walking

December 11, 2017
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Random walking

BAGEL SHOP IDEA I was sitting in a bagel shop on Saturday with my 9 year old daughter. We had brought along hexagonal graph paper and a six sided die. We decided that we would choose a hexagon in the middle of the page and then roll the die to determine a direction: 1 up The post Random walking...

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How long do you need to flip a coin to see a streak?

October 25, 2017
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How long do you need to flip a coin to see a streak?

STREAK RESULTS FOR LIKELY (__50%) and HIGHLY LIKELY (__99%) Click to enlarge From research on the hot hand to the observation that people don’t create enough streaks when instructed to create pseudo random data, the decision science community is pretty interested in the perception of streaks. One day we got to wonder, how long would The post How long...

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How much will that Texas rain be

August 25, 2017
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How much will that Texas rain be

PUTTING 35 INCHES OF RAIN IN PERSPECTIVE We are always interested in putting numbers into perspective, so we were interested in this article in which they put the Hurricane Harvey’s rain into perspective. They’re predicting 30-40 inches of rain in a few days in Texas. They asked an expert to put that into perspective and The post How much...

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Five kinds of weather you’ll meet in America

August 1, 2017
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Five kinds of weather you’ll meet in America

K-MEANS CLUSTERING, A WORKHORSE OF DATA SCIENCE AND MACHINE LEARNING CLICK TO ENLARGE The USA is a large country. How different are people’s experiences of the weather depending on where they live? To look into this question, we downloaded high temperature data for over 1,300 airport weather stations in the contiguous USA for every day The post Five kinds...

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Weighted population density

June 26, 2017
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Weighted population density

DENSITY THE AVERAGE PERSON EXPERIENCES CLICK TO ENLARGE In Alaska, there’s about one person for each square mile of land. You might picture a typical Alaskan not being able to see the next house. But it’s not that way of course. Most of Alaska is uninhabited. People have crowded into a few areas. The average The post Weighted population...

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Counterintuitive problem: Everyone in a room keeps giving dollars to random others. You’ll never guess what happens next.

June 19, 2017
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Sorry for the clickbait title. Couldn't resist. The post Counterintuitive problem: Everyone in a room keeps giving dollars to random others. You’ll never guess what happens next. appeared first on Decision Science News.

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Counterintuitive probability problem of the day

May 24, 2017
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Counterintuitive probability problem of the day

TWO SHOT RUSSIAN ROULETTE WITH 2 BULLETS OR AN EQUAL CHANCE OF 1 or 3 BULLETS With p as the probability of dying on one shot, this figure shows how to get the probability of living through the game. Peter Ayton is giving a talk today at the London Judgement and Decision Making Seminar Imagine The post Counterintuitive probability...

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Another rule of three, this one in statistics

April 14, 2017
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Another rule of three, this one in statistics

Here's another rule of three, this one in statistics. The post Another rule of three, this one in statistics appeared first on Decision Science News.

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How many digits into pi do you need to go to find your birthday?

March 17, 2017
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How many digits into pi do you need to go to find your birthday?

FIND YOUR BIRTHDAY IN PI, IN THREE DIFFERENT FORMATS It was Pi Day (March 14, like 3/14, like 3.14, get it?) recently and Time Magazine did a fun interactive app in which you can find your birthday inside the digits of pi. However: 1) They only used one format of birthday, in which July 4th The post How many...

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