# Statistique de l’assurance STT6705V, partie 12 bis

December 7, 2010
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(This article was first published on Freakonometrics - Tag - R-english, and kindly contributed to R-bloggers)

In the previous post (here) discussing forecasts of actuarial quantities, I did not mention much how to forecast the temporal component in the Lee-Carter model. Actually, many things can be done. Consider here some exponential smoothing techniques (see here for more details). For instance, with a simple model, with an additive error, no trend and no seasonal component,

or equivalently

Then , and if we want a confidence interval
> (ETS.ANN=ets(Y,model="ANN"))ETS(A,N,N) Call:ets(y = Y, model = "ANN") Smoothing parameters:alpha = 0.7039 Initial states:l = 75.0358 sigma:  11.4136 AIC     AICc      BIC941.0089 941.1339 946.1991> plot(forecast(ETS.ANN,h=100))
Here, a natural idea will probably be to take into account a linear trend on the series, i.e.

where

then the forecast we make is  i.e.
ETS.AAN=ets(Y,model="AAN")plot(forecast(ETS.AAN,h=100))
It is also possible to ask for an "optimal" exponential smoothing model (without any specification)
> ETSETS(A,A,N) Call: ets(y = Y)   Smoothing parameters:    alpha = 0.6107    beta  = 1e-04   Initial states:    l = 74.5622    b = -1.9812   sigma:  11.0094      AIC     AICc      BIC937.8695 938.2950 948.2500> plot(forecast(ETS,h=100))

Another idea can be to consider some autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA), here with a linear trend

For instance, if we want only the integrated component, i.e.

then the code is
> ARIMA010T=Arima(Y,order=c(0,1,0),include.drift=TRUE)Series: YARIMA(0,1,0) with drift Call: Arima(x = Y, order = c(0, 1, 0), include.drift = TRUE) Coefficients:drift-2.0337s.e.   1.1904 sigma^2 estimated as 138.9:  log likelihood = -380.8AIC = 765.6   AICc = 765.73   BIC = 770.77> plot(forecast(ARIMA010T,h=100))
But note that any kind of ARIMA model can be considered, e.g. integrated with an autoregressive component (here of order 1)
or with also a moving average component (again of order 1)
Actually, note that, once again, we can ask for an automatic selection of the model,
> (autoARIMA=auto.arima(Y,allowdrift=TRUE))Series: YARIMA(0,1,1) with drift Call: auto.arima(x = Y, allowdrift = TRUE) Coefficients:          ma1    drift      -0.3868  -2.0139s.e.   0.0970   0.6894 sigma^2 estimated as 122.3:  log likelihood = -374.65AIC = 755.29   AICc = 755.55   BIC = 763.05> plot(forecast(autoARIMA,h=100))

Finally, it is possible to use also also some specific functions of the package, for instance to consider a random walk with a drift,
RWF=rwf(Y,h=100,drift=TRUE)plot(RWF)
or Holt model (with a trend)
HOLT=holt(Y,h=100,damped=TRUE)plot(HOLT)
And if all that is not enough, it is also possible to go further by changing the size of the series we use to fit the model. A question that naturally arises is the treatment of wars in our model: shouldn't we assume that the forecast should be based only on the last 50 years (and exclude wars from our analysis) ? In that case, for instance, the exponential smoothing technique gives
while the ARIMA procedure returns
And finally, with the Holt technique, we have
So, it looks like we have a lot of techniques that can be used to provide a forecast for the temporal component in the Lee-Carter model,
All those estimators can be used to estimate annuities of insurance contracts (as here),
BASEB=BASEB[,1:99]BASEC=BASEC[,1:99]AGE=AGE[1:99]library(gnm)D=as.vector(BASEB)E=as.vector(BASEC)A=rep(AGE,each=length(ANNEE))Y=rep(ANNEE,length(AGE))base=data.frame(D,E,A,Y,a=as.factor(A),y=as.factor(Y))LC2=gnm(D~a+Mult(a,y),offset=log(E),family=poisson,data=base) A=LC2$coefficients[1]+LC2$coefficients[2:99]B=LC2$coefficients[100:198]K0=LC2$coefficients[199:297]Y=as.numeric(K01)K1=c(K0,forecast(ets(Y),h=120)$mean)K2=c(K0,forecast(auto.arima(Y,allowdrift=TRUE),h=120)$mean)K3=c(K0,rwf(Y,h=120,drift=TRUE)$mean)K4=c(K0,holt(Y,h=120,drift=TRUE)$mean)K5=c(K0,forecast(ets(Y[50:99]),h=120)$mean)K6=c(K0,forecast(auto.arima(Y[50:99],allowdrift=TRUE),h=120)$mean)K7=c(K0,rwf(Y[50:99],h=120,drift=TRUE)$mean)K8=c(K0,holt(Y[50:99],h=120,drift=TRUE)$mean) MU=matrix(NA,length(A),length(K1))MU1=MU2=MU3=MU4=MU5=MU6=MU7=MU8=MU for(i in 1:length(A)){for(j in 1:length(K1)){MU1[i,j]=exp(A[i]+B[i]*K1[j])MU2[i,j]=exp(A[i]+B[i]*K5[j])MU3[i,j]=exp(A[i]+B[i]*K3[j])MU4[i,j]=exp(A[i]+B[i]*K4[j])MU5[i,j]=exp(A[i]+B[i]*K5[j])MU6[i,j]=exp(A[i]+B[i]*K6[j])MU7[i,j]=exp(A[i]+B[i]*K7[j])MU8[i,j]=exp(A[i]+B[i]*K8[j])}} t=2000x=40s=seq(0,98-x-1) Pxt1=cumprod(exp(-diag(MU1[x+1+s,t+s-1898])))Pxt2=cumprod(exp(-diag(MU2[x+1+s,t+s-1898])))Pxt3=cumprod(exp(-diag(MU3[x+1+s,t+s-1898])))Pxt4=cumprod(exp(-diag(MU4[x+1+s,t+s-1898])))Pxt5=cumprod(exp(-diag(MU5[x+1+s,t+s-1898])))Pxt6=cumprod(exp(-diag(MU6[x+1+s,t+s-1898])))Pxt7=cumprod(exp(-diag(MU7[x+1+s,t+s-1898])))Pxt8=cumprod(exp(-diag(MU8[x+1+s,t+s-1898]))) r=.035m=70h=seq(0,21)V1=1/(1+r)^(m-x+h)*Pxt1[m-x+h]V2=1/(1+r)^(m-x+h)*Pxt2[m-x+h]V3=1/(1+r)^(m-x+h)*Pxt3[m-x+h]V4=1/(1+r)^(m-x+h)*Pxt4[m-x+h]V5=1/(1+r)^(m-x+h)*Pxt5[m-x+h]V6=1/(1+r)^(m-x+h)*Pxt6[m-x+h]V7=1/(1+r)^(m-x+h)*Pxt7[m-x+h]V8=1/(1+r)^(m-x+h)*Pxt8[m-x+h]
Hence, here the difference is significant,
> M=cbind(V1,V2,V3,V4,V5,V6,V7,V8)
> apply(M,2,sum)
V1       V2       V3       V4       V5       V6       V7       V8
4.389372 4.632793 4.406465 4.389372 4.632793 4.468934 4.482064 4.632793
or graphically,

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