Posts Tagged ‘ ETS ’

Time horizon in forecasting, and rules of thumb

April 7, 2011
By
Time horizon in forecasting, and rules of thumb

I recently received an email about forecasting and rules of thumb. "Dans la profession se transmet une règle empirique qui voudrait que l'on prenne un historique du double de l'horizon de prévision : 20 ans de données pour une prévision

Read more »

Is it that stupid to make extremely long term forecast when studying mortality ?

December 14, 2010
By
Is it that stupid to make extremely long term forecast when studying mortality ?

I received recently a comment by FCA (here) who raised an important question, about forecast in dynamic mortality models. (S)he mentioned that from his(her) point of view, the econometric models I considered were "good to predict for the next, say,...

Read more »

Statistique de l’assurance STT6705V, partie 12 bis

December 7, 2010
By
Statistique de l’assurance STT6705V, partie 12 bis

In the previous post (here) discussing forecasts of actuarial quantities, I did not mention much how to forecast the temporal component in the Lee-Carter model. Actually, many things can be done. Consider here some exponential smoothing techniques ...

Read more »

Search R-bloggers

Sponsors

Never miss an update!
Subscribe to R-bloggers to receive
e-mails with the latest R posts.
(You will not see this message again.)

Click here to close (This popup will not appear again)