Posts Tagged ‘ uncertainty ’

principles of uncertainty

October 13, 2011
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principles of uncertainty

“Bayes Theorem is a simple consequence of the axioms of probability, and is therefore accepted by all as valid. However, some who challenge the use of personal probability reject certain applications of Bayes Theorem.“  J. Kadane, p.44 Principles of uncertainty by Joseph (“Jay”) Kadane (Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh) is a profound and mesmerising book on

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Time horizon in forecasting, and rules of thumb

April 7, 2011
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Time horizon in forecasting, and rules of thumb

I recently received an email about forecasting and rules of thumb. "Dans la profession se transmet une règle empirique qui voudrait que l'on prenne un historique du double de l'horizon de prévision : 20 ans de données pour une prévision

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