Utility Spread and Financial Turbulence

May 23, 2011 | klr

THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.  YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR OWN GAINS AND LOSSES. In Long XLU Short SPY Part 2 (More History), I explored the defensive nature of the spread and its potential as a bond substitute in troublesome periods for stocks...
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Long XLU Short SPY Part 2 (More History)

May 20, 2011 | klr

THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.  YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR OWN GAINS AND LOSSES. The Fed is on a roll adding BAC ML Bond Indicies and now complete history for the four primary Dow Jones Indexes, so I wanted to extend my first post Long XLU Shor...
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Long XLU Short SPY

May 20, 2011 | klr

THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.  YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR OWN GAINS AND LOSSES. I spend my days and nights wondering what a bond manager should do if he/she doesn’t like bonds, but also cannot sit in 0% cash.  I generally dislike spreads...
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CPI and US 10y Treasury Extreme –> System Idea

May 3, 2011 | klr

When I see extremes, I feel compelled to explore. The US 10y Treasury yield is at an extreme versus the annualized 3 month CPI rate of change. From TimelyPortfolio Of course, I have to try to build a system around the idea.  While this 3 mont...
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Another Use of LSPM in Tactical Portfolio Allocation

April 29, 2011 | klr

After the slightly unconventional use of LSPM presented in Slightly Different Use of Ralph Vince’s Leverage Space Trading Model, I thought I should follow up with something that more closely resembles my interpretation of Ralph Vince’s book. LSPM s...
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New Favorite Test of US Monetary Policy Limits

April 20, 2011 | klr

After a little additional thought, I discovered that my Death Spiral Warning Graph post can be improved through the isolation of the expected inflation component of US 10y yields provided by the US 10y yield – US 10y TIP yield.  Unfortunately, i...
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Barron’s Spring 2008 Big Money Poll

April 19, 2011 | klr

Barron's April 28, 2008, Cover Story "Back in the Pool" offers a great hindsight look at our wonderful foresight: “AND NOW, FOR SOME GOOD NEWS: THE OTHER SHOE isn't going to drop. After a winter of discontent marked by massive write-offs on Wall Str...
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Correlation network

March 22, 2011 | Dzidorius Martinaitis

I came up with an idea to draw correlation network to get a grasp about relationship between a list of stocks. An alternative way to show correlation matrix would be head map, which can have limitations with big matrices (__100). Unfortunately,  ggplot2 package doesn’t have a easy way to draw ... [Read more...]

Tick data retrieval

January 31, 2011 | Dzidorius Martinaitis

I just published Java based code to pull tick data from Interactive Brokers. There are thousands tools to get tick data from IB, but I had one feature in mind. You can get maximum 50 quotes per second from Interactive Brokers (its IB limitation for TWS API) . Imagine a situation, when ... [Read more...]

3 weak days in a row

December 6, 2010 | kafka

Recently, Trading the odds posted one of many flavors of mean reverting strategies and I decided to get my hands dirty by writing R code and testing it. You can find full description of the strategy by following latter link above. Long story short – if SPY shows lower open, high ... [Read more...]

Intraday volatility of OMX Baltic stocks

August 16, 2010 | kafka

Usually, intraday volatility exhibits a “smile” – it is high at open and close and it is lower during the trading day. DJI index, 5 min. intervals, CET time: MOS stock, 5 s. intervals, CET time: Because many readers of this blog are trading Nasdaq OMX Baltic stocks, it is worth to share ... [Read more...]
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