Posts Tagged ‘ rules of thumb ’

Time horizon in forecasting, and rules of thumb

April 7, 2011
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Time horizon in forecasting, and rules of thumb

I recently received an email about forecasting and rules of thumb. "Dans la profession se transmet une règle empirique qui voudrait que l'on prenne un historique du double de l'horizon de prévision : 20 ans de données pour une prévision

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Tipping heuristics

April 28, 2010
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Tipping heuristics

INCREDIBLY SIMPLE CALCULATIONS MADE SIMPLE Yes, we all know how to calculate 15% or 20% exactly, but it’s fun to use tipping heuristics and even more fun to make crowded graphs of how they compare to each other. (Sorry for the junky chart. Open for suggestions, in the words of Tom Waits.) Here are a

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