PCA or Polluting your Clever Analysis

August 31, 2012 | Christoph Molnar

When I learned about principal component analysis (PCA), I thought it would be really useful in big data analysis, but that's not true if you want to do prediction. I tried PCA in my first competition at kaggle, but it delivered bad results. This post illustrates how PCA can pollute ...
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Predictive analytics: Some ways to waste time

August 17, 2012 | Christoph

I am starting to take part at different competitions at kaggle and crowdanalytics. The goal of most competitions is to predict a certain outcome given some covariables.  It is a lot of fun trying out different methods like random forests, boosted ...
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ESPN Prediction Performance for the NFL

January 25, 2012 | Patrick Rhodes

Description:ESPN 'experts' predict the National Football League wins/losses each week.  The above chart shows the percentage of their correct guesses and an overall trend, week by week.Data: graph shows an i...
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Testing an S&P 500 prediction

July 10, 2011 | Pat

If a particular prediction comes true, how surprised should we be? The prediction The page that sparked my curiosity tells of a prediction made a year ago that the S&P 500 would beat its historic high by the end of 2011.  It says that at the point the prediction was made, ... [Read more...]

Friday fun projects

May 14, 2011 | nsaunders

What’s a “Friday fun project”? It’s a small computing project, perfect for a Friday afternoon, which serves the dual purpose of (1) keeping your programming/data analysis skills sharp and (2) providing a mental break from the grind of your day job. Ideally, the skills learned on the project are ... [Read more...]

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