Posts Tagged ‘ forecasting ’

Exponential smoothing and regressors

February 28, 2012
By

I have thought quite a lot about including regressors (i.e. covariates) in exponential smoothing (ETS) models, and I have done it a couple of times in my published work. See my 2008 exponential smoothing book (chapter 9) and my 2008 Tourism Management paper. However, there are some theoretical issues with these approaches, which have come to light through the research of...

Read more »

Update to Partisan Bias in Fed Inflation Forecasts

February 7, 2012
By
Update to Partisan Bias in Fed Inflation Forecasts

Since I'm in the depths of PhD thesis revisions I haven't had much time to do much other than update previous posts (see my Stata Country Standardizer Update).Here is an update of an earlier post about possible partisan biases in US Federal Reserve sta...

Read more »

Partisan Bias in Fed Inflation Forecasts?

December 22, 2011
By
Partisan Bias in Fed Inflation Forecasts?

Following on from my previous post about US Federal Reserve inflation forecast errors, I decided to put together a descriptive graph to see if there might be a partisan bias to these forecast erros. Also, given all of the work in the political eco...

Read more »

Kaggle on TV

September 22, 2011
By

It is good to see forecasting algorithms getting some mainstream exposure on ABC Catalyst.

Read more »

Time series cross-validation: an R example

August 25, 2011
By
Time series cross-validation: an R example

I was recently asked how to implement time series cross-validation in R. Time series people would normally call this “forecast evaluation with a rolling origin” or something similar, but it is the natural and obvious analogue to leave-one-out cross-validation for cross-sectional data, so I prefer to call it “time series cross-validation”. Here is some example

Read more »

Major changes to the forecast package

August 25, 2011
By
Major changes to the forecast package

The forecast package for R has undergone a major upgrade, and I’ve given it version number 3 as a result. Some of these changes were suggestions from the forecasting workshop I ran in Switzerland a couple of months ago, and some have been on the drawing board for a long time. Here are the main

Read more »

Forecasting time series using R

August 24, 2011
By

I’ll be giving a talk on Forecasting time series using R for the Melbourne Users of R Network (MelbURN) on Thursday 27 October 2011 at 6pm. I will look at the various facilities for time series forecasting available in R, concentrating on the forecast package. This package implements several automatic methods for forecasting time series

Read more »

Statistical tests for variable selection

March 14, 2011
By

I received an email today with the following comment: I’m using ARIMA with Intervention detection and was planning to use your package to identify my initial ARIMA model for later iteration, however I found that sometimes the auto.arima function returns a model where AR/MA coefficients are not significant. So my question is: Is there a

Read more »

Research position in forecasting renewable energy

February 4, 2011
By

I don’t normally post job ads except when they are within my own research group. But this one is close to my research interests, and I’d like to help the institution find someone good for the role, so I’m making an exception. It is a position for a post-doctoral researcher at the Centre for Energy

Read more »

Six places left for the forecasting workshop

January 10, 2011
By

There are six places left for the forecasting workshop I am giving in Switzerland in June. If you were thinking of going, book in fast!

Read more »

Search R-bloggers

Sponsors

Never miss an update!
Subscribe to R-bloggers to receive
e-mails with the latest R posts.
(You will not see this message again.)

Click here to close (This popup will not appear again)