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The **bSims** R package is

a *highly scientific* and *utterly addictive* bird point count

simulator. Highly scientific, because it implements a spatially explicit

mechanistic simulation that is based on statistical models widely used

in bird point count analysis (i.e. removal models, distance sampling),

and utterly addictive because the implementation is designed to allow

rapid interactive exploration (via **shiny** apps) and efficient

simulation (supporting various parallel backends), thus elevating the

user experience.

The goals of the package are to:

- allow easy
*testing of statistical assumptions*and explore effects

of violating these assumptions, *aid survey design*by comparing different options,- and most importantly, to
*have fun*while doing it via an intuitive

and interactive user interface.

The simulation interface was designed with the following principles in

mind:

*isolation*: the spatial scale is small (local point count scale) so

that we can treat individual landscapes as more or less homogeneous

units (but see below how certain stratified designs and edge effects

can be incorporated) and independent independent in space and time;*realism*: the implementation of biological mechanisms and

observation processes are realistic, defaults are chosen to reflect

common practice and assumptions;*efficiency*: implementation is computationally efficient utilizing

parallel computing backends when available;*extensibility*: the package functionality is well documented and

easily extensible.

This documents outlines the major functionality of the package. First we

describe the motivation for the simulation and the details of the

layers. Then we outline an interactive workflow to design simulation

studies and describe how to run efficient simulation experiments.

Finally we present some of the current limitations of the framework and

how to extend the existing functionality of the package to incorporate

more of the biological realism into the simulations.

## Simulation layers

Introductory stats books begin with the coin flip to introduce the

binomial distribution. In R we can easily simulate an outcome from such

a random variable (Y \sim Binomial(1, p)) doing something like this:

```
p <- 0.5
Y <- rbinom(1, size = 1, prob = p)
```

But a coin flip in reality is a lot more complicated: we might consider

the initial force, the height of the toss, the spin, and the weight of

the coin.

Bird behavior combined with the observation process presents a more

complicated system, that is often treated as a mixture of a count

distribution and a detection/nondetection process, e.g.:

```
D <- 2 # individuals / unit area
A <- 1 # area
p <- 0.8 # probability of availability given presence
q <- 0.5 # probability of detection given availability
N <- rpois(1, lambda = A * D)
Y <- rbinom(1, size = N, prob = p * q)
```

This looks not too complicated, corresponding to the true abundance

being a random variables (N \sim Poisson(DA)), while the observed

count being (Y \sim Binomial(N, pq)). This is the exact simulation

that we need when we want to make sure that an *estimator* is capable of

estimating the *model* parameters (`lambda`

and `prob`

here). But such

probabilistic simulations are not very useful when we are interested how

well the *model* captures important aspects of *reality*.

Going back to the Poisson–Binomial example, `N`

would be a result of all

the factors influencing bird abundance, such as geographical location,

season, habitat suitability, number of conspecifics, competitors, or

predators. `Y`

however would largely depend on how the birds behave

depending on timing, or how an observer might detect or miss the

different individuals, or count the same individual twice, etc.

Therefore the package has layers, that by default are *conditionally
independent* of each other. This design decision is meant to facilitate

the comparison of certain settings while keeping all the underlying

realizations identical, thus helping to pinpoint effects without the

extra variability introduced by all the other effects.

The conditionally independent *layers* of a **bSims** realization are

the following, with the corresponding function:

- landscape (
`bsims_init`

), - population (
`bsims_populate`

), - behavior with movement and vocalization events (
`bsims_animate`

), - the physical side of the observation process (
`bsims_detect`

), and - the human aspect of the observation process (
`bsims_transcribe`

).

This example is a sneak peek go to the package vebsite where the

vignette describes all the arguments.

```
library(bSims)
## Loading required package: intrval
## Loading required package: mefa4
## Loading required package: Matrix
## mefa4 0.3-6 2019-06-20
## Loading required package: MASS
## Loading required package: deldir
## deldir 0.1-23
## bSims 0.2-1 2019-12-16 chik-chik
phi <- 0.5 # singing rate
tau <- 1:3 # detection distances by strata
tbr <- c(3, 5, 10) # time intervals
rbr <- c(0.5, 1, 1.5) # count radii
l <- bsims_init(10, # landscape
road=0.25, edge=0.5)
p <- bsims_populate(l, # population
density=c(1, 1, 0))
e <- bsims_animate(p, # events
vocal_rate=phi,
move_rate=1, movement=0.2)
d <- bsims_detect(e, # detections
tau=tau)
x <- bsims_transcribe(d, # transcription
tint=tbr, rint=rbr)
get_table(x) # removal table
## 0-3min 3-5min 5-10min
## 0-50m 0 0 0
## 50-100m 1 0 0
## 100-150m 1 0 0
op <- par(mfrow=c(2,3), cex.main=2)
plot(l, main="Initialize")
plot(p, main="Populate")
plot(e, main="Animate")
plot(d, main="Detect")
plot(x, main="Transcribe")
par(op)
```

## Statistical validity of the simulations

We can test the validity of the simulations when all of the assumptions

are met (that is the default) in the homogeneous habitat case. We set

singing rate (`phi`

), detection distance (`tau`

), and density (`Den`

)

for the simulations. Density is in this case unrealistically high,

because we are not using replication only a single landscape. This will

help with the estimation.

```
phi <- 0.5 # singing rate
tau <- 2 # detection distance
Den <- 10 # density
set.seed(1)
l <- bsims_init()
a <- bsims_populate(l, density=Den)
b <- bsims_animate(a, vocal_rate=phi)
o <- bsims_detect(b, tau=tau)
tint <- c(1, 2, 3, 4, 5)
rint <- c(0.5, 1, 1.5, 2) # truncated at 200 m
(x <- bsims_transcribe(o, tint=tint, rint=rint))
## bSims transcript
## 1 km x 1 km
## stratification: H
## total abundance: 1014
## duration: 10 min
## detected: 259 heard
## 1st event detected by breaks:
## [0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 min]
## [0, 50, 100, 150, 200 m]
(y <- get_table(x, "removal")) # binned new individuals
## 0-1min 1-2min 2-3min 3-4min 4-5min
## 0-50m 1 3 1 2 0
## 50-100m 7 3 5 1 1
## 100-150m 12 2 2 1 2
## 150-200m 13 8 2 1 1
colSums(y)
## 0-1min 1-2min 2-3min 3-4min 4-5min
## 33 16 10 5 4
rowSums(y)
## 0-50m 50-100m 100-150m 150-200m
## 7 17 19 25
```

We use the **detect** package to fit removal model and distance sampling

model to the simulated output. This is handily implemented in the

`estimate`

method for the transcription objects. First we estimate

singing rate, effective detection distance, and density based on

truncated distance counts:

```
library(detect)
## Loading required package: Formula
## Loading required package: stats4
## Loading required package: pbapply
## detect 0.4-2 2018-08-29
cbind(true = c(phi=phi, tau=tau, D=Den),
estimate = estimate(x))
## true estimate
## phi 0.5 0.5768794
## tau 2.0 2.2733052
## D 10.0 8.2330714
```

Next we estimate singing rate, effective detection distance, and density

based on unlimited distance counts:

```
rint <- c(0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, Inf) # unlimited
(x <- bsims_transcribe(o, tint=tint, rint=rint))
## bSims transcript
## 1 km x 1 km
## stratification: H
## total abundance: 1014
## duration: 10 min
## detected: 259 heard
## 1st event detected by breaks:
## [0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 min]
## [0, 50, 100, 150, 200, Inf m]
(y <- get_table(x, "removal")) # binned new individuals
## 0-1min 1-2min 2-3min 3-4min 4-5min
## 0-50m 1 3 1 2 0
## 50-100m 7 3 5 1 1
## 100-150m 12 2 2 1 2
## 150-200m 13 8 2 1 1
## 200+m 15 9 6 6 2
colSums(y)
## 0-1min 1-2min 2-3min 3-4min 4-5min
## 48 25 16 11 6
rowSums(y)
## 0-50m 50-100m 100-150m 150-200m 200+m
## 7 17 19 25 38
cbind(true = c(phi=phi, tau=tau, D=Den),
estimate = estimate(x))
## true estimate
## phi 0.5 0.5128359
## tau 2.0 1.9928785
## D 10.0 9.2041636
```

## Simulation workflow

Deviations from the assumptions and bias in density estimation can be

explored systematically by evaluating the simulations settings. We

recommend exploring the simulation settings interactively in the

**shiny** apps using `run_app("distfunH")`

app for the homogeneous

habitat case and the `run_app("distfunHER")`

app for the stratified

habitat case. The apps represent the simulation layers as tabs, the last

tab presenting the settings that can be copied onto the clipboard and

pasted into the R session or code. In simple situations, comparing

results from a few different settings might be enough.

Let us consider the following simple comparison: we want to see how much

of an effect does roads have when the only effect is that the road

stratum is unsuitable. Otherwise there are no behavioral or

detectability effects of the road.

```
tint <- c(2, 4, 6, 8, 10)
rint <- c(0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, Inf) # unlimited
## no road
b1 <- bsims_all(
road = 0,
density = c(1, 1, 0),
tint = tint,
rint = rint)
## road
b2 <- bsims_all(
road = 0.5,
density = c(1, 1, 0),
tint = tint,
rint = rint)
b1
## bSims wrapper object with settings:
## road : 0
## density: 1, 1, 0
## tint : 2, 4, 6, 8, 10
## rint : 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, Inf
b2
## bSims wrapper object with settings:
## road : 0.5
## density: 1, 1, 0
## tint : 2, 4, 6, 8, 10
## rint : 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, Inf
```

The `bsims_all`

function accepts all the arguments we discussed before

for the simulation layers. Unspecified arguments will be taken to be the

default value. However, `bsims_all`

does not evaluate these arguments,

but it creates a closure with the settings. Realizations can be drawn

as:

```
b1$new()
## bSims transcript
## 1 km x 1 km
## stratification: H
## total abundance: 75
## duration: 10 min
## detected: 12 heard
## 1st event detected by breaks:
## [0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 min]
## [0, 50, 100, 150, 200, Inf m]
b2$new()
## bSims transcript
## 1 km x 1 km
## stratification: HR
## total abundance: 95
## duration: 10 min
## detected: 4 heard
## 1st event detected by breaks:
## [0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 min]
## [0, 50, 100, 150, 200, Inf m]
```

Run multiple realizations is done as:

```
B <- 25 # number of runs
bb1 <- b1$replicate(B)
bb2 <- b2$replicate(B)
```

The replicate function takes an argument for the number of replicates

(`B`

) and returns a list of transcript objects with (B) elements. The

`cl`

argument can be used to parallelize the work, it can be a numeric

value on Unix/Linux/OSX, or a cluster object on any OS. The `recover =`

argument allows to run simulations with error catching.

TRUE

Simulated objects returned by `bsims_all`

will contain different

realizations and all the conditionally independent layers. Use a

customized layered approach if former layers are meant to be kept

identical across runs.

In more complex situations the **shiny** apps will help identifying

corner cases that are used to define a gradient of settings for single

or multiple simulation options. Let us consider the following scenario:

we would like to evaluate how the estimates are changing with increasing

road width. We will use the `expand_list`

function which creates a list

from all combinations of the supplied inputs. Note that we need to wrap

vectors inside `list()`

to avoid interpreting those as values to iterate

over.

```
s <- expand_list(
road = c(0, 0.5, 1),
density = list(c(1, 1, 0)),
tint = list(tint),
rint = list(rint))
str(s)
## List of 3
## $ :List of 4
## ..$ road : num 0
## ..$ density: num [1:3] 1 1 0
## ..$ tint : num [1:5] 2 4 6 8 10
## ..$ rint : num [1:5] 0.5 1 1.5 2 Inf
## $ :List of 4
## ..$ road : num 0.5
## ..$ density: num [1:3] 1 1 0
## ..$ tint : num [1:5] 2 4 6 8 10
## ..$ rint : num [1:5] 0.5 1 1.5 2 Inf
## $ :List of 4
## ..$ road : num 1
## ..$ density: num [1:3] 1 1 0
## ..$ tint : num [1:5] 2 4 6 8 10
## ..$ rint : num [1:5] 0.5 1 1.5 2 Inf
```

We now can use this list of settings to run simulations for each. The

following illustrates the use of multiple cores:

```
b <- lapply(s, bsims_all)
nc <- 4 # number of cores to use
library(parallel)
cl <- makeCluster(nc)
bb <- lapply(b, function(z) z$replicate(B, cl=cl))
stopCluster(cl)
```

In some cases, we want to evaluate crossed effects of multiple settings.

For example road width and spatial pattern (random vs. clustered):

```
s <- expand_list(
road = c(0, 0.5),
xy_fun = list(
NULL,
function(d) exp(-d^2/1^2) + 0.5*(1-exp(-d^2/4^2))),
density = list(c(1, 1, 0)),
tint = list(tint),
rint = list(rint))
str(s)
## List of 4
## $ :List of 5
## ..$ road : num 0
## ..$ xy_fun : NULL
## ..$ density: num [1:3] 1 1 0
## ..$ tint : num [1:5] 2 4 6 8 10
## ..$ rint : num [1:5] 0.5 1 1.5 2 Inf
## $ :List of 5
## ..$ road : num 0.5
## ..$ xy_fun : NULL
## ..$ density: num [1:3] 1 1 0
## ..$ tint : num [1:5] 2 4 6 8 10
## ..$ rint : num [1:5] 0.5 1 1.5 2 Inf
## $ :List of 5
## ..$ road : num 0
## ..$ xy_fun :function (d)
## .. ..- attr(*, "srcref")= 'srcref' int [1:8] 5 5 5 53 5 53 5 5
## .. .. ..- attr(*, "srcfile")=Classes 'srcfilecopy', 'srcfile'
```
## ..$ density: num [1:3] 1 1 0
## ..$ tint : num [1:5] 2 4 6 8 10
## ..$ rint : num [1:5] 0.5 1 1.5 2 Inf
## $ :List of 5
## ..$ road : num 0.5
## ..$ xy_fun :function (d)
## .. ..- attr(*, "srcref")= 'srcref' int [1:8] 5 5 5 53 5 53 5 5
## .. .. ..- attr(*, "srcfile")=Classes 'srcfilecopy', 'srcfile'
## ..$ density: num [1:3] 1 1 0
## ..$ tint : num [1:5] 2 4 6 8 10
## ..$ rint : num [1:5] 0.5 1 1.5 2 Inf

The package considers simulations as independent in space and time. When

larger landscapes need to be simulated, there might be several options:

(1) simulate a larger extent and put multiple independent observers into

the landscape; or (2) simulate independent landscapes in isolation. The

latter approach can also address spatial and temporal heterogeneity in

density, behavior, etc. E.g. if singing rate is changing as a function

of time of day, one can define the `vocal_rate`

values as a function of

time, and simulate independent animation layers. When the density varies

in space, one can simulate independent population layers.

## Next steps

The package currently is a snapshot of all that it can be. I am saying

this because it was written as an interactive tool for a workshop about

point count data analysis (see it the material

here). What it will become

largely depends on its user base and people willing to take it to the

next level via PRs with additional features (see the code of

conduct).

If you have ideas, let me know in the

issues or comments!

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**Peter Solymos - R related posts**.

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