Blog Archives

Relative risk ratios and odds ratios by @ellis2013nz

August 16, 2018
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Relative risk ratios and odds ratios by @ellis2013nz

This post tries to explain the difference between odds ratios and relative risk ratios; and how just a few letters in the code fitting a generalized linear model mean the difference between extracting one or the other. There are plenty of other explan...

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Time series intervention analysis with fuel prices by @ellis2013nz

August 13, 2018
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Time series intervention analysis with fuel prices by @ellis2013nz

A couple of months ago I blogged about consumer spending on vehicle fuel by income. The impetus for that post was the introduction on 1 July 2018 of an 11.5 cent per litre “regional fuel tax” in Auckland. One vehement critic of the levy, largely ...

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Leading indicators of economic growth by @ellis2013nz

August 9, 2018
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Leading indicators of economic growth by @ellis2013nz

The debate about business confidence as a possible leading indicator of economic growth reminded me of a question that has long been on my back-burner - what data make the best leading indicators (say, a quarter of a year ahead) of economic growth? Th...

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Business confidence and economic growth by @ellis2013nz

Business confidence and economic growth by @ellis2013nz

The ANZ bank have a nice bit of publicity for themselves each month in New Zealand with the release of the results of their monthly Business Outlook Survey. This week it caused a bit of a stir, with the ANZ’s own commentary reporting New Zealand corporate sector is “in a funk” (ANZ’s words) with a net 45 percentage...

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Setting up RStudio Server, Shiny Server and PostgreSQL by @ellis2013nz

Setting up RStudio Server, Shiny Server and PostgreSQL by @ellis2013nz

Motivation For a variety of reasons I wanted a Linux server in the cloud with data science software on it. In no particular order: so I could access a reliable setup from anywhere with a web browser, including on networks without the software I need (which happens a lot in corporate/government environments) so I could do round-the-clock data gathering when...

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Spend on petrol by income by @ellis2013nz

Spend on petrol by income by @ellis2013nz

Fuel tax debates So, there’s currently a vibrant debate on a small New Zealandish corner of Twitter about a petrol tax coming into effect in Auckland today, and the different impacts of such taxes on richer and poorer households. The Government has released analysis from the Stats NZ Household Expenditure Survey showing higher petrol consumption per household for higher income households...

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Demography simulations by @ellis2013nz

Demography simulations by @ellis2013nz

Total fertility rate This is my second blog post while familiarising myself with the arithmetic of demography. In my earlier post I looked at how life expectancy is calculated. “Period life expectancy at birth” as estimated by national statistical offices is actually best thought of as a summary of death rates by age group in a particular year; the calculation...

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Minor updates for ggseas and Tcomp R packages by @ellis2013nz

Minor updates for ggseas and Tcomp R packages by @ellis2013nz

Updates I’ve made small updates to two of my R packages on CRAN: ggseas (seasonal adjustment on the fly for ggplot2 graphics) and Tcomp (tourism forecasting competition data). Neither of the packages changes in a noticeable way for most users. The ggseas update is to get it ready for the coming release of ggplot2 2.3.0 scheduled for the end of...

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Demystifying life expectancy calculations by @ellis2013nz

Demystifying life expectancy calculations by @ellis2013nz

Life expectancy and death rates A chance comment on Twitter about historical increases in life expectancy (in the USA) with fairly constant death rates got me wondering about the exact calculations of these things so I did some Googling. Warning on what follows - I am strictly an amateur in demographics, and was deliberately working things out from basics...

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Fifteen New Zealand government Shiny web apps by @ellis2013nz

Fifteen New Zealand government Shiny web apps by @ellis2013nz

At a glance: I had a brief look around New Zealand government agency websites and found 15 high quality web apps written in the Shiny platform. 13 May 2018 Here’s fifteen nice web applications built with RStudio’s Shiny framework. All of these are owned and maintained by New Zealand government departments and have a main purpose as making public data more...

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