Blog Archives

Exploring swings in Australian federal elections by @ellis2013nz

March 10, 2019
By
Exploring swings in Australian federal elections by @ellis2013nz

Swings are far from uniform Last week I introduced a Bayesian state space model of two-party-preferred voting intention for Australian federal elections. It treats the surveys from various polling firms as imperfect (potentially systematically imperfe...

Read more »

Bayesian state space modelling of the Australian 2019 election by @ellis2013nz

Bayesian state space modelling of the Australian 2019 election by @ellis2013nz

So I’ve been back in Australia for five months now. While things have been very busy in my new role at Nous Group, it’s not so busy that I’ve failed to notice there’s a Federal election due some time by November this year. I’m keen to apply some of the techniques I used in New Zealand in the richer...

Read more »

Seasonality in NZ voting preference? by @ellis2013nz

February 19, 2019
By
Seasonality in NZ voting preference? by @ellis2013nz

There was a flurry of activity in the last couple of days on Twitter and the blogosphere, most notably Thomas Lumley’s excellent Stats Chat, relating to whether there is a pro-government bias in surveys of New Zealand voting intention in the summer. As the analysis I’ve seen used my nzelect R package, this motivated me to update it for...

Read more »

What the world agrees with by @ellis2013nz

January 25, 2019
By
What the world agrees with by @ellis2013nz

A serious, decades-long attempt to understand different peoples’ values David Hood (@Thoughfulnz) has been posting some interesting snippets of analysis using the World Values Survey data (like this example). This inspired me to have a look at the d...

Read more »

Simulating Persian Monarchs gameplay by @ellis2013nz

December 22, 2018
By
Simulating Persian Monarchs gameplay by @ellis2013nz

‘I can teach you in a minute…’ In a recent post I simulated some simple dice games and promised (or threatened) that this was the first of a series of posts about games of combined luck and chance. The main aim of that post was to show how even ...

Read more »

Number of births in the twentieth century by @ellis2013nz

November 30, 2018
By
Number of births in the twentieth century by @ellis2013nz

Motivation A couple of weeks back, Branko Milanovic asked on Twitter : “Does anyone know a link to a calculation on how many people were born … in the entire 20th century?” Somewhat surprisingly, no-one did. However, there was a calculatio...

Read more »

Counting digits by @ellis2013nz

November 23, 2018
By
Counting digits by @ellis2013nz

Counting digits appearing in page numbers The other day in a training session, the facilitators warmed people up into intellectual work with this group exercise: Count the number of times the digit “1” appears in the page numbers of a 90 page book. Then, count the number of times it appears in the page numbers of a 2,000 page book. (Actual...

Read more »

A more systematic look at suppressed data by @ellis2013nz

November 17, 2018
By
A more systematic look at suppressed data by @ellis2013nz

Last week I blogged about some different ways of dealing with data in a cross tab that has been suppressed as a means of disclosure control, when the count in a cell is less than six. I tried simple replacement of those cells with “3”, two differen...

Read more »

Suppressed data (left-censored counts) by @ellis2013nz

November 5, 2018
By
Suppressed data (left-censored counts) by @ellis2013nz

This is a post about dealing with tables that have been subject to cell suppression or perturbation for confidentiality reasons. While some of the data world is only just waking up to issues of confidentiality and privacy, national statistics offices ...

Read more »

Simulating simple dice games by @ellis2013nz

October 26, 2018
By
Simulating simple dice games by @ellis2013nz

A necessary but not sufficient condition for a game being one of skill rather than pure chance is that the player gets to make choices. If the game play is fully automatic, as in standard Snakes and Ladders, then there cannot possibly be any skill involved. However, any game of pure chance can be converted to one of skill simply...

Read more »

Search R-bloggers


Sponsors

Never miss an update!
Subscribe to R-bloggers to receive
e-mails with the latest R posts.
(You will not see this message again.)

Click here to close (This popup will not appear again)