Male mortality in Russia and Japan

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Russia is sadly notorious for its ridiculously high adult male mortality. According to Human Mortality Database data (2010), the probability for a Russian men to survive from 20 to 60 was just 0.64 1. For women the probability is 0.87. This huge gender disproportion in mortality results in a peculiar sex ratio profile (see my old DemoTrends post and the previous blog post).

Now let’s compare age-specific mortality rates of Russian men to that of the Japanese. For years and years Japan performs best in reducing mortality. It became standard to compare mortality schedules of other countries to the Japanese one 2.

First, I need to get HMD data for both Russian and Japanese males. Again, I am using the amazing R package HMDPFDplus of Tim Riffe to download HMD data with just a couple of lines of R code.

<span class="c1"># load required packages
</span><span class="n">library</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">tidyverse</span><span class="p">)</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="c1"># version 1.0.0
</span><span class="n">library</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">HMDHFDplus</span><span class="p">)</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="c1"># version 1.1.8
</span><span class="w">
</span><span class="c1"># load life tables for men, RUS and JPN
</span><span class="n">rus</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o"><-</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">readHMDweb</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="s1">'RUS'</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="s2">"mltper_1x1"</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">ik_user_hmd</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">ik_pass_hmd</span><span class="p">)</span><span class="w">
</span><span class="n">jpn</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o"><-</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">readHMDweb</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="s1">'JPN'</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="s2">"mltper_1x1"</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">ik_user_hmd</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">ik_pass_hmd</span><span class="p">)</span><span class="w">
</span>

Please note, the arguments ik_user_hmd and ik_pass_hmd are my login credidantials at the website of Human Mortality Database, which are stored locally at my computer. In order to access the data, one needs to create an account at http://www.mortality.org/ and provide his own credidantials to the readHMDweb() function.

Next, I select the most recent year for comparison, 2014, and compute the rate ratio of age specific mortality rates.

<span class="c1"># compare mortality rates for 2014
</span><span class="n">ru</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o"><-</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">rus</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">%>%</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">filter</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">Year</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">==</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="m">2014</span><span class="p">)</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">%>%</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">transmute</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">age</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">=</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">Age</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">rus</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">=</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">mx</span><span class="p">)</span><span class="w">
</span><span class="n">jp</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o"><-</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">jpn</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">%>%</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">filter</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">Year</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">==</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="m">2014</span><span class="p">)</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">%>%</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">transmute</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">age</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">=</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">Age</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">jpn</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">=</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">mx</span><span class="p">)</span><span class="w">
</span><span class="n">df</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o"><-</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">left_join</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">jp</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">ru</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="s1">'age'</span><span class="p">)</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">%>%</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">mutate</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">ru_rate</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">=</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">rus</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">/</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">jpn</span><span class="p">)</span><span class="w">
</span>

Finally, I plot the resulting rate ratio of male mortality in Russia and Japan.

<span class="c1"># get nice font
</span><span class="n">library</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">extrafont</span><span class="p">)</span><span class="w">
</span><span class="n">myfont</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o"><-</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="s2">"Roboto Condensed"</span><span class="w">

</span><span class="c1"># plot
</span><span class="n">gg</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o"><-</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">ggplot</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">df</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">aes</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">age</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">ru_rate</span><span class="p">))</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">+</span><span class="w"> 
        </span><span class="n">geom_hline</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">yintercept</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">=</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="m">1</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">color</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">=</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="s1">'red'</span><span class="p">)</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">+</span><span class="w">
        </span><span class="n">geom_line</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">aes</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">group</span><span class="o">=</span><span class="m">1</span><span class="p">))</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">+</span><span class="w"> 
        </span><span class="n">scale_y_continuous</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="s1">'mortality rate ratio'</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="w">
                           </span><span class="n">breaks</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">=</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="m">0</span><span class="o">:</span><span class="m">10</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">labels</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">=</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="m">0</span><span class="o">:</span><span class="m">10</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">limits</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">=</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="nf">c</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="m">0</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="m">10</span><span class="p">))</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">+</span><span class="w">
        </span><span class="n">annotate</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="s1">'text'</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="n">x</span><span class="o">=</span><span class="nf">c</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="m">0</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="m">55</span><span class="p">),</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">y</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">=</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="nf">c</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="m">1.75</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="m">5</span><span class="p">),</span><span class="w"> 
                 </span><span class="n">color</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">=</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="nf">c</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="s1">'red'</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="s1">'black'</span><span class="p">),</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">hjust</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">=</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="m">0</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">vjust</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">=</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="m">1</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">size</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">=</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="m">7</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="w">
                 </span><span class="n">label</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">=</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="nf">c</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="s1">'Japan'</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="s1">'Russia'</span><span class="p">),</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">family</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">=</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">myfont</span><span class="p">)</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">+</span><span class="w">
        </span><span class="n">ggtitle</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="s1">'Compare age-specific mortality of males'</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="w">
                </span><span class="n">subtitle</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">=</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="s2">"Russia and Japan, 2014, HMD"</span><span class="p">)</span><span class="o">+</span><span class="w">
        </span><span class="n">theme_bw</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">base_size</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">=</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="m">15</span><span class="p">,</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">base_family</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">=</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">myfont</span><span class="p">)</span><span class="w">
</span>

gg

In the middle ages, male mortality in Russian is up to 10 times higher than in Japan!

This post is based on my earlier twit and gist.

  1. To compare, the same probabilities for males in some developed countries are: France (0.89), Japan (0.92), US (0.87), UK (0.91). 

  2. See for example the recent NIDI working paper of Balachandran et. al (2017)

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