Autoregressive Conditional Poisson Model – I

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Modeling the time series of count outcome is of interest in the operational risk while forecasting the frequency of losses. Below is an example showing how to estimate a simple ACP(1, 1) model, e.g. Autoregressive Conditional Poisson, without covariates with ACP package.

library(acp)

### acp(1, 1) without covariates ###
mdl <- acp(y ~ -1, data = cnt)
summary(mdl)
# acp.formula(formula = y ~ -1, data = cnt)
#
#   Estimate   StdErr t.value   p.value    
# a 0.632670 0.169027  3.7430 0.0002507 ***
# b 0.349642 0.067414  5.1865 6.213e-07 ***
# c 0.184509 0.134154  1.3753 0.1708881    

### generate predictions ###
f <- predict(mdl)
pred <- data.frame(yhat = f, cnt)
tail(pred, 5)
#          yhat y
# 164 1.5396921 1
# 165 1.2663993 0
# 166 0.8663321 1
# 167 1.1421586 3
# 168 1.8923355 6

### calculate predictions manually ###
pv167 <- mdl$coef[1] + mdl$coef[2] * pred$y[166] + mdl$coef[3] * pred$yhat[166] 
# [1] 1.142159

pv168 <- mdl$coef[1] + mdl$coef[2] * pred$y[167] + mdl$coef[3] * pred$yhat[167] 
# [1] 1.892336

plot.ts(pred, main = "Predictions")

rplot

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