# Expected Points by Position Rank in Fantasy Football

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In this post, I calculate the expected fantasy points scored by players based on their position and position rank. This post is modeled after a post by Chase Stuart (see here), where he calculated players’ expected fantasy points as a function of historical performance for each position and position rank. For my fantasy football auction draft optimizer tool in Shiny, see here.

### How the Expected Points were Calculated

I downloaded historical projected position ranks and actual fantasy points scored from 1999 to 2012. The historical data for average draft position (used for projected position rank) came from myfantasyleague.com. The historical data for actual fantasy points came from Pro-Football-Reference and FantasyPlaymakers. I calculated fantasy points based on standard fantasy football scoring settings from FantasyPros. Then I computed robust averages of actual fantasy points for each position rank by averaging the actual fantasy points scored for each position rank across years using the Hodges-Lehmann estimator, which is the median of all pairwise means, and is robust to outliers.

### R Scripts

The R script for downloading the historical ADP data is located here (note that the data were first exported to .xml by going here):

https://github.com/dadrivr/FantasyFootballAnalyticsR/blob/master/R%20Scripts/Historical%20ADP.R

The R script for downloading the historical fantasy points scored is located here:

https://github.com/dadrivr/FantasyFootballAnalyticsR/blob/master/R%20Scripts/Historical%20Actual.R

The R script for calculating the best fitting line for each position and creating the plots is located here:

https://github.com/dadrivr/FantasyFootballAnalyticsR/blob/master/R%20Scripts/eVORP.R

### Plots

The plots below show the expected fantasy points for each position and position rank with the best-fitting line overlaid.

For a brief summary of the position scatterplots:

Running backs, wide receivers and tight ends have the greatest loss in value after the early picks. Also, quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends were much more predictable (R-squared values around .80) than kickers and defenses (R-squared values around .50).

### Conclusion

- QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs are fairly
**predictable**in terms of fantasy points - Kickers and Defenses are fairly
**unpredictable**in terms of fantasy points - RBs, WRs, and TEs show
**steep early decreases**in expected value after the first picks - QBs show
**stable decreases**in expected value - Kickers and Defenses show
**flat levels**of expected value

__Here are my suggestions based on these findings__:

- Spend your first picks on RBs, WRs, and TEs (they are fairly predictable, and their values decrease exponentially after the best ones are off the board).
- After drafting RBs, WRs, and TEs, draft a QB. QBs are fairly predictable, and their values don’t decrease as fast RBs, WRs, and TEs, so you can still get a fairly solid QB after the top QBs are off the board.
- Wait until drafting RBs, WRs, TEs, and QBs before drafting Kickers and Defenses because they are unpredictable and lower ranked Ks and Ds only show small decreases in expected value.

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