More variables, spinoff projects, and RuPaul’s Drag Race season 5 predictions: episode 10

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Last week, Alyssa got the boot and Jinkx kept her place. And I totally called it with my first model that accounted for the proportional hazards assumption. I think the model is having a little more success as the season plods on.

Before I get to the predictions for episode 10, there’s two really interesting prospects that may either give this model some more predictive power or become very interesting projects in their own right.

Drag Queen Confessional – The first is this project that has been undertaken by user aemerz on the RPDR subreddit. The idea focuses on the “confessionals” — the periods of the show when each queen is out of drag and chats about some aspect of the show, as Alaska is doing above. It follows that the more of these that the queen has, dressed in different outfits, probably means that she was on the show longer. aemerz diligently put together a list of confessional appearances, separated by appearance (including clothing and facial hair) and time. Holy crap. Talk about fine-grained data. So far she’s just done this for episode 1, with more to follow, hopefully.

Lineages of the Dragsolutist StateDilettwat and I were chatting on Twitter, and she made the observation that some of the current season’s queens have had “family” connections with queens in the previous seasons. An obvious one with this season is that Alaska is dating last season’s winner, Sharon Needles. But the connections are also generational, between drag mothers (mentors) and their daughters, often expressed in a queen’s surname, for instance. A possible project would be to try to track down these lineages and make a really massive, messy network graph. It would also be interesting to see if these particular lineages made a queen more likely to get on to the show. Also I dearly want to use the “Lineages of the Dragsolutist State” as an article title. If anyone knows where I could get this kind of network data, I will spend a lot of time photoshopping makeup onto a picture of Perry Anderson, which you can then frame and hang above your mantel.


Anyhow, here’s the main event. Coco is in major caca after having to lipsync for her third time.

1  Jinkx Monsoon  1.0026270  1.1771043
2         Alaska  1.3982759  1.6070394
3          Detox  2.0801715  0.5885726
4 Roxxxy Andrews  6.3551933  4.0318868
5 Coco Montrese  25.1210568  2.9196050

Jinkx is still set to take top honors, being the only queen that has won two challenges, but Alaska is not too far behind. I wouldn’t be surprised if Roxxxy won next week, just because she’s been whining that there’s been no “glamour” challenges lately. And the producers want to mix this up, right?

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