tracking Australian election betting markets again (now with sparklines)

July 13, 2011
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(This article was first published on simon jackman's blog » R, and kindly contributed to R-bloggers)

The header of my blog (above) shows the latest prices on offer in some of Australia’s election betting markets.  I convert the prices to an implied probability of ALP win (factoring out the bookie’s profit margin, the so-called “overround”).

I’m using some Javascript by John Resig to make Tufte-ish sparklines, although the Google version of sparklines looks easy to work with too. I’m using some R to generate PNG files plotting the last 72 hours of data.

Time-series graphs appear as PDFs too, again see the header of the blog.

On the data themselves, the betting markets have been moving in a pro-Coalition direction over the last two weeks, with some movement around the time that recent polls have been released, showing that the Coalition would romp home.  I think we’re still waiting on some post-carbon-tax polling, and how the betting markets digest that.

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