Posts Tagged ‘ strategies ’

ARMA Models for Trading, Part III

May 2, 2011
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ARMA Models for Trading, Part III

In the last post I showed how to pick the parameters for the ARMA model. The next step is to determine the position at the close. One way to do that is by a one day ahead prediction, if the prediction comes negative (remember the series we are operating on is the daily returns) then

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Investing with the Odds

March 2, 2011
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Investing with the Odds

In this previous post, I showed that a look at the correlations in the daily returns of S&P 500 should have lead to a very profitable investing strategy. I also promised to show the results of this strategy in the 80s, but I am not going to do that, because MarketSci has done so in

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RSI(2) and the pre 80s Market

February 17, 2011
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RSI(2) and the pre 80s Market

In his detailed research on RSI(2) indicator, MarketSci emphasized several times that the contrarian strategies based on the RSI(2) indicator didn’t start working until the 80s. I remembered this observation recently when I observed another interesting anomaly … In statistics, an important initial step in studying time series data is to consider the auto correlation

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