We look at a few forecasts for the year 2011 that we’ve run across, and compare them with the prediction distributions presented in Revised market prediction distributions.
There is a “range forecast” on an Interactive Investor page of 5350 to 6565. It isn’t clear (to me at least) what this means, but I find it fascinating that it is ever so close to a 95% confidence interval assuming no market movement via my technology. The quantiles of that range are 3.2% and 97.6%.
Table 1: Some 2011 predictions for the FTSE 100.
|Jaskarn Pawar||Investor Profile||6,000||webpage|
|Andrew Swallow||Swallow Financial||6,100||webpage|
|Danny Cox||Hargreaves Lansdown||6,400||webpage|
|Melvyn Bell||Lowes Financial Management||6,500||webpage|
|Justin Urquhart Stewart||Seven Investment Man.||6,660||webpage|
|Martin Bamford||Informed Choice||6,700||webpage|
Dow Jones Industrials
A range for the Dow Jones of 10,300 to 12,750 is predicted by tradersir. That corresponds to quantiles of 1.4% to 97.3% in my distribution. Ranges are also given for the S&P 500: 1100 (0.9%) to 1400 (98.0%).
Table 2: Some 2011 predictions for the Dow Jones Industrials.
|E. Thomas McClanahan||Kansas City Star||12,700||webpage|
Table 3: Some 2011 predictions for the S&P 500.
|Laszlo Birinyi||Birinyi Associates||1,333||webpage|
Table 4: Some 2011 predictions for the Hang Seng.
|median of 13||The Standard survey||28,800||webpage|
|Kingston Lin King-kam||OSK Asia||30,000||webpage|
Table 5: Some 2011 predictions for the Shanghai Composite.
|Shenyin & Wanguo||3,800||webpage|
Table 6: Some 2011 predictions for the Sensex.
|K. K. Mittal||Globe Capital||24,000||webpage|
Table 7: Some 2011 predictions for oil price.
Figures may be reproduced with attribution.
The tables are created automatically by R from the data frames that hold the data for the predictions. I just copy the R output and paste it into the html editing window. The xtable package is almost suitable for that, but (as far as I can tell) it doesn’t allow the html commands to go through unaltered. So I wrote a little function (pp.htmltable) to do what I wanted.
Yet again you can get the R functions that are used via the R command:
On one use of this command, I received:
Error in file(file, "r", encoding = encoding) :
cannot open the connection
In addition: Warning message:
In file(file, "r", encoding = encoding) :
unable to resolve 'www.portfolioprobe.com'
However, that was just a temporary glitch.