In response to Where are the Fat Tails?, reader vonjd very helpfully referred me to this paper The Trend is Not Your Friend! Why Empirical Timing Success is Determined by the Underlying’s Price Characteristics and Market Efficiency is Irrelevant by P...
The strategies used in Strategy Diversification in R were labeled as Strategy1 and Strategy2. Strategy1 Indicator: 52 week Simple Moving Average Entry Rule: Buy 1000 shares when price crosses and closes above 52 week Simple Moving Average Exit Rule: Exit all positions when prices crosses and closes below 52 week Simple Moving Average Classification: Long … Continue reading...
New events To R, or not to R, that is the question The Statistical Computing Section of the Royal Statistical Society presents a one-day event on 2012 June 29. The details of the day. See in particular the abstract for “Teaching statistics: a pain in the R?” by Andy Field — it involves a sheepdog … Continue reading...
Recently, I was working on my master's thesis and came across an interesting observation regarding the term structure of interest rate spread volatility that I wish to share. Let me first try and throw some light on the jargon that I have used. To begi...
I've been following the myriad circus of Facebook commentators and bystanders pointing to its horrific failed IPO launch and seemingly inevitable crash to zero. While my focus here isn't really so much on fundamentals or basic TA; I do want to comment ...
A look at return variability for portfolio changes. The problem Suppose we make some change to our portfolio. At a later date we can see if that change was good or bad for the portfolio return. Say, for instance, that it helped by 16 basis points. How do we properly account for variability in that … Continue reading...
In part 2, we saw that adding a volatility filter to a single instrument test did little to improve performance or risk adjusted returns. How will the volatility filter impact a multiple instrument portfolio? In part 3 of the follow up, I will evaluate the impact of the volatility filter on a multiple instrument test. … Continue reading...
Diversification is hard to find nowadays because financial markets are becoming increasingly correlated. I found a good visually presentation of Cross Sectional Correlation of stocks in the S&P 500 index in the Trading correlation by D. Varadi and C. Rittenhouse article. Let’s compute and plot the average correlation among stocks in the S&P 500 index 
Today I want to show how to use Volatility Position Sizing to improve strategy’s Risk Adjusted Performance. I will use the Average True Range (ATR) as a measure of Volatility and will increase allocation during low Volatility periods and will decrease allocation during high Volatility periods. Following are two good references that explain these strategy 
In the Follow-Up Part 1, I explored some of the functions in the quantstrat package that allowed us to drill down trade by trade to explain the difference in performance of the two strategies. By doing this, I found that my choice of a volatility measure may not have been the best choice. Although the … Continue reading...
Zero Inflated Models and Generalized Linear Mixed Models with R.
Zuur, Saveliev, Ieno (2012).
