This is a lecture post for my students in the CUNY MS Data Analytics program. In this series of lectures …Continue reading »

Introduction Today, I will begin a series of posts on numerical integration, which has a wide range of applications in many fields, including statistics. I will introduce with trapezoidal integration by discussing its conceptual foundations, write my own R function to implement trapezoidal integration, and use it to check that the Beta(2, 5) probability density

The Independent Factor Autoregressive Conditional Density (IFACD) model of Ghalanos, Rossi and Urga (2014) uniquely, in its class of parametric models, generates time varying higher co-moment forecasts, as a consequence of the ACD specification of the conditional density of the standardized innovations. In this short note I discuss in more detail the properties of the

The Independent Factor Autoregressive Conditional Density (IFACD) model of Ghalanos, Rossi and Urga (2014) uniquely, in its class of parametric models, generates time varying higher co-moment forecasts, as a consequence of the ACD specification of the conditional density of the standardized innovations. In this short note I discuss in more detail the properties of the

In the last post I showed how to use Laplace approximation to quickly (but dirtily) approximate the posterior distribution of a Bayesian model coded in R. This is just a short follow up where I show how to use importance sampling as an easy method to shape up the Laplace approximation in order to approximate the true...