Nowadays there are many trading strategies shared online with reproducible, decent, results. Have you asked yourself, if the strategies are so profitable, why the author bother even sharing them, when the path to riches is clear – just implement the strategy and use it? There are people, of course, who are fascinated and challenged by
Regime Detection comes handy when you are trying to decide which strategy to deploy. For example there are periods (regimes) when Trend Following strategies work better and there are periods when Mean Reversion strategies work better. Today I want to show you one way to detect market Regimes. To detect market Regimes, I will fit 
This two-part blog post I published a day ago required key-stats from Yahoo Finance for all the companies in the control group I created for my research. I wanted all the key-stats pulled, arranged in a data-frame and then present them side-...
An idea that I have been toying for a while, has been to study the effect of a domain-specific optimization strategy in the ARMA+GARCH models. If you recall from this long tutorial, the implemented approach cycles through all models within a the specified ranges for the parameters and chooses the best model based on the
I first read about the Couch Potato strategy in the MoneySense magazine. I liked this simple strategy because it was easy to understand and easy to manage. The Couch Potato strategy is similar to the Permanent Portfolio strategy that I have analyzed previously. The Couch Potato strategy invests money in the given proportions among different 
As the Yen and Japan continue to get more interesting in my mind, I just wanted to resurrect some posts that I have done on Japan and the Yen and sort them by my favorites. Japan Trade by Geographic RegionJapanese Trade and the YenJapan Intentional or...
Today I want to show a simple example of how we can value a company using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis. The idea is to compute the company’s Intrinsic Value based on the discounted future cash-flows. To compute future cash-flows I will use the historical Free Cash Flow growth rate. To compute present value of 
I have previously described and back-tested the Permanent Portfolio strategy based on the series of posts at the GestaltU blog. Today I want to show how we can improve the Permanent Portfolio strategy perfromance using following simple tools: Volatility targeting Risk allocation Tactical market filter First, let’s load the historical prices for the stocks(SPY), gold(GLD), 
I recently came across the “An early Halloween for gold traders” article by Mark Hulbert. I have discussed this type of seasonality analysis in my presentation at R/Finance this year. It is very easy to run the seasonality analysis using the Systematic Investor Toolbox. This confirms that October have been historically bad for Gold, but 
In portfolio management, risk management and derivative pricing, volatility plays an important role. So important in fact that you can find more volatility models than you can handle (Wikipedia link). What follows is to check how well each model performs, … Continue reading →
Zero Inflated Models and Generalized Linear Mixed Models with R.
Zuur, Saveliev, Ieno (2012).
