570 search results for "Trading"

Alternative to Monte Carlo Testing

July 4, 2012
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Alternative to Monte Carlo Testing

When we backtest a strategy on a portfolio, it is a simple analysis of a single period in time. There are ways to “stress test” a strategy such as monte carlo, random portfolios, or shuffling the returns in a random order. I could never really wrap my head around monte carlo and shuffling the returns … Continue reading...

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Graphics Artifacts from Quarterly Commentary

July 2, 2012
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Graphics Artifacts from Quarterly Commentary

For my Q2 2012 commentary, I tried multiple graphs to illustrate the disconnect of the US stock markets with the rest of the world.  I think I finally settled on this simple Excel bar graph populated by Bloomberg data, but I thought some might lik...

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Crazy RUT in Academic Context Why Trend is Not Your Friend

June 26, 2012
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Crazy RUT in Academic Context Why Trend is Not Your Friend

In response to Where are the Fat Tails?, reader vonjd very helpfully referred me to this paper The Trend is Not Your Friend! Why Empirical Timing Success is Determined by the Underlying’s Price Characteristics and Market Efficiency is Irrelevant by P...

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Strategy Diversification in R – follow up

June 25, 2012
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Strategy Diversification in R – follow up

The strategies used in Strategy Diversification in R were labeled as Strategy1 and Strategy2. Strategy1 Indicator: 52 week Simple Moving Average Entry Rule: Buy 1000 shares when price crosses and closes above 52 week Simple Moving Average Exit Rule: Exit all positions when prices crosses and closes below 52 week Simple Moving Average Classification: Long … Continue reading...

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To R or not to R, and other events

June 21, 2012
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To R or not to R, and other events

New events To R, or not to R, that is the question The Statistical Computing Section of the Royal Statistical Society presents a one-day event on 2012 June 29. The details of the day.  See in particular the abstract for “Teaching statistics: a pain in the R?” by Andy Field — it involves a sheepdog … Continue reading...

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Term structure of interest rate spread volatility : Unit root test

Term structure of interest rate spread volatility : Unit root test

Recently, I was working on my master's thesis and came across an interesting observation regarding the term structure of interest rate spread volatility that I wish to share. Let me first try and throw some light on the jargon that I have used. To begi...

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The Facebook Doomsday Watch

May 31, 2012
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The Facebook Doomsday Watch

I've been following the myriad circus of Facebook commentators and bystanders pointing to its horrific failed IPO launch and seemingly inevitable crash to zero. While my focus here isn't really so much on fundamentals or basic TA; I do want to comment ...

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Jackknifing portfolio decision returns

May 28, 2012
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Jackknifing portfolio decision returns

A look at return variability for portfolio changes. The problem Suppose we make some change to our portfolio.  At a later date we can see if that change was good or bad for the portfolio return.  Say, for instance, that it helped by 16 basis points.  How do we properly account for variability in that … Continue reading...

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Simple Moving Average Strategy with a Volatility Filter: Follow-Up Part 3

May 10, 2012
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Simple Moving Average Strategy with a Volatility Filter: Follow-Up Part 3

In part 2, we saw that adding a volatility filter to a single instrument test did little to improve performance or risk adjusted returns. How will the volatility filter impact a multiple instrument portfolio? In part 3 of the follow up, I will evaluate the impact of the volatility filter on a multiple instrument test. … Continue reading...

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Cross Sectional Correlation

May 7, 2012
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Cross Sectional Correlation

Diversification is hard to find nowadays because financial markets are becoming increasingly correlated. I found a good visually presentation of Cross Sectional Correlation of stocks in the S&P 500 index in the Trading correlation by D. Varadi and C. Rittenhouse article. Let’s compute and plot the average correlation among stocks in the S&P 500 index

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