611 search results for "Trading"

Variability of predicted portfolio volatility

February 11, 2013
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Variability of predicted portfolio volatility

A prediction of a portfolio’s volatility is an estimate — how variable is that estimate? Data The universe is 453 large cap US stocks. The variance matrices are estimated with the daily returns in 2012. Variance estimation was done with Ledoit-Wolf shrinkage (shrinking towards equal correlation). Two sets of random portfolios were created.  In both … Continue reading...

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Maize trade Part II: Comparison and analysis

February 3, 2013
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Maize trade Part II: Comparison and analysis

Following my last post about the maize network, although interesting but is not very informative. What we are going to do today is to contrast the maize network with the wine trade network.The choice why we have chose wine will become clear after the...

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The components garch model in the rugarch package

January 28, 2013
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The components garch model in the rugarch package

How to fit and use the components model. Previously Related posts are: A practical introduction to garch modeling Variability of garch estimates garch estimation on impossibly long series Variance targeting in garch estimation The model The components model (created by Engle and Lee) generally works better than the more common garch(1,1) model.  Some hints about … Continue reading...

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Adding Comments to CSV Files

January 11, 2013
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Various of my R scripts produce csv files as output. For instance, I run a lengthy SVM back test, the end result is a csv file containing the indicator with some additional information. The problem is that over time one loses track what exactly the file contained and what parameters were used to produce it.

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Market predictions for year 2013

January 7, 2013
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Market predictions for year 2013

Calibrations of 2013 predictions for 18 equity indices — plus some publicly available predictions. Orientation The distributions are an attempt to see the variability if there were no market-driving news for the whole year. Another way of thinking: mentally moving the distribution to center on a prediction gives a sense of the variability of results … Continue reading...

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2012 Summary and 2013 Plans

January 6, 2013
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2012 Summary and 2013 Plans

2012 was a very important year for me. It was my first full year of trading only pure quantitative strategies. It was a very successful year as well, despite the fact that the S&P 500 returned 16% (including dividends) – a tough to beat benchmark. The strategy I use on the SPY, for which I

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More Principal Components Fun

January 6, 2013
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More Principal Components Fun

Today, I want to continue with the Principal Components theme and show how the Principal Component Analysis can be used to build portfolios that are not correlated to the market. Most of the content for this post is based on the excellent article, “Using PCA for spread trading” by Jev Kuznetsov. Let’s start by loading

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IBS reversion edge with QuantShare

January 4, 2013
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IBS reversion edge with QuantShare

Happy New Years to readers; my resolution this year is to continue delivering thoughts and ideas to others in the hopes that we all might be able to benefit somewhat from sharing observations. I'll start by describing an edge using QuantShare as the b...

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100 most read R posts in 2012 (stats from R-bloggers) – big data, visualization, data manipulation, and other languages

January 2, 2013
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100 most read R posts in 2012 (stats from R-bloggers) – big data, visualization, data manipulation, and other languages

R-bloggers.com is now three years young. The site is an (unofficial) online journal of the R statistical programming environment, written by bloggers who agreed to contribute their R articles to the site. Last year, I posted on the top 24...

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ARMA+GARCH Experiences

December 27, 2012
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A reader’s comment on my ARMA Models for Trading post asked about different aspects of my experience with ARMA+GARCH for trading forecasting. The more I thought about it, the more it looked like a full post. So here we go. Starting with the high level – what packages did I try? I have tried a

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