616 search results for "Trading"

Digging into the VIX

March 3, 2013
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Digging into the VIX

I wanted to revisit using some sort of volatility filter for systematic trading. In particular, if we are trading SPX, can we somehow use the VIX to produce better risk adjust returns? This is not about trading volatility, but more about using addition...

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System Testing

February 28, 2013
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System Testing

R at Work...crunching numbersIf you wanna find out how your trading idea would have coped in the previous years you would perform a backtest. For years I have used commercial software but could not find a package, which I would really recommend. I have...

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Momentum in R: Part 4 with Quantstrat

February 19, 2013
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Momentum in R: Part 4 with Quantstrat

The past few posts on momentum with R focused on a relatively simple way to backtest momentum strategies. In part 4, I use the quantstrat framework to backtest a momentum strategy. Using quantstrat opens the door to several features and options as well as an order book to check the trades at the completion of … Continue reading...

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R for finance and other upcoming events

February 12, 2013
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R for finance and other upcoming events

Featured R for Finance Workshop 2013 March 5-6 in London. The target audience are professionals and academics, who wish to learn the basics of the statistical software R and its use in Finance. The workshop is led by Ron Hochreiter, Pat Burns and Michael Sun. Details are on the Unicom website.  Please reference Burns Statistics … Continue reading...

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Did an Excel error bring down the London Whale?

February 11, 2013
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When JP Morgan Chase announced it had lost more than 2 billion dollars on the capital markets back in May 2012, many pointed to the actions of rogue trader Bruno Iksil as the cause. But was the "London Whale" — the nickname he was given by other traders for his outsized positions — the victim not of hubris, but...

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Variability of predicted portfolio volatility

February 11, 2013
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Variability of predicted portfolio volatility

A prediction of a portfolio’s volatility is an estimate — how variable is that estimate? Data The universe is 453 large cap US stocks. The variance matrices are estimated with the daily returns in 2012. Variance estimation was done with Ledoit-Wolf shrinkage (shrinking towards equal correlation). Two sets of random portfolios were created.  In both … Continue reading...

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Maize trade Part II: Comparison and analysis

February 3, 2013
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Maize trade Part II: Comparison and analysis

Following my last post about the maize network, although interesting but is not very informative. What we are going to do today is to contrast the maize network with the wine trade network.The choice why we have chose wine will become clear after the...

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The components garch model in the rugarch package

January 28, 2013
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The components garch model in the rugarch package

How to fit and use the components model. Previously Related posts are: A practical introduction to garch modeling Variability of garch estimates garch estimation on impossibly long series Variance targeting in garch estimation The model The components model (created by Engle and Lee) generally works better than the more common garch(1,1) model.  Some hints about … Continue reading...

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Adding Comments to CSV Files

January 11, 2013
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Various of my R scripts produce csv files as output. For instance, I run a lengthy SVM back test, the end result is a csv file containing the indicator with some additional information. The problem is that over time one loses track what exactly the file contained and what parameters were used to produce it.

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Market predictions for year 2013

January 7, 2013
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Market predictions for year 2013

Calibrations of 2013 predictions for 18 equity indices — plus some publicly available predictions. Orientation The distributions are an attempt to see the variability if there were no market-driving news for the whole year. Another way of thinking: mentally moving the distribution to center on a prediction gives a sense of the variability of results … Continue reading...

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