Very. If you have 10 possible independent regressors, and none of which matter, you have a good chance to find at least one is important. A good chance being 40%: prob(one or more looks important) = 1 – prob(non looks … Continue reading →
393 search results for "trading"
Interview with a forced convert from Matlab to R
Here is an interview with Ron Hochreiter, Assistant Professor at WU Vienna University Economics and Business. In 25 words or less tell us what you do (using German words is cheating). I consider myself as a data scientist (teaching and research) with roots in Mathematical Programming, i.e. Optimization under Uncertainty (Stochastic Programming). You were an
The post Interview...
Automatic ARMA/GARCH selection in parallel
In the original ARMA/GARCH post I outlined the implementation of the garchSearch function. There have been a few requests for the code so … here it is. Quite easy to use too: After the last code line above, fit contains the best (according to the AIC statistic) model, which is the return value of garchFit.
A volatility filter using historical vol
We have been looking at a way to improve risk adjusted returns by using a volatility filter. Although we could use VIX or equivalent, it turns out that historical volatility will work just as well, if not a little better.
You can see part 1 here Digging into the VIX, and part 2 here What can we use...
What can we use the VIX for?
In part 1, we took a look at VIX and the relationship it had between historical volatility and realized volatility.Continuing on, I thought I would take a look at next day returns and the VIX. There is a relationship between SPX and VIX in that when SP...
Digging into the VIX
I wanted to revisit using some sort of volatility filter for systematic trading. In particular, if we are trading SPX, can we somehow use the VIX to produce better risk adjust returns? This is not about trading volatility, but more about using addition...
Momentum in R: Part 4 with Quantstrat
The past few posts on momentum with R focused on a relatively simple way to backtest momentum strategies. In part 4, I use the quantstrat framework to backtest a momentum strategy. Using quantstrat opens the door to several features and options as well as an order book to check the trades at the completion of … Continue reading...
R for finance and other upcoming events
Featured R for Finance Workshop 2013 March 5-6 in London. The target audience are professionals and academics, who wish to learn the basics of the statistical software R and its use in Finance. The workshop is led by Ron Hochreiter, Pat Burns and Michael Sun. Details are on the Unicom website. Please reference Burns Statistics … Continue reading...
Did an Excel error bring down the London Whale?
When JP Morgan Chase announced it had lost more than 2 billion dollars on the capital markets back in May 2012, many pointed to the actions of rogue trader Bruno Iksil as the cause. But was the "London Whale" — the nickname he was given by other traders for his outsized positions — the victim not of hubris, but...
Variability of predicted portfolio volatility
A prediction of a portfolio’s volatility is an estimate — how variable is that estimate? Data The universe is 453 large cap US stocks. The variance matrices are estimated with the daily returns in 2012. Variance estimation was done with Ledoit-Wolf shrinkage (shrinking towards equal correlation). Two sets of random portfolios were created. In both … Continue reading...
Zero Inflated Models and Generalized Linear Mixed Models with R.
Zuur, Saveliev, Ieno (2012).
