This post will demonstrate a method to create an ensemble filter based on a trade-off between smoothness and responsiveness, two … Continue reading →

Life has been busy and has kept me away from blogging, and from trading, mostly. Still, I can’t stay away from monitoring the markets, and, with the recent rally, I started asking myself – has the situation changed since the 200 day SMA signaled an exit. What do you think – make up your mind The post

You could say that the following post is an answer/comment/addition to Quintuitive, though I would consider it as a small introduction to parallel computing with snowfall using the thoughts of Quintuitive as an example. A quick recap: Say you create a model that is able to forecast 60% of market directions (that is, in 6

In the previous post, I went through a simple exercise which, to me, clearly demonsrtates that 60% out of sample guess rate (on daily basis) for S&P 500 will generate ridiculous returns. From the feedback I got, it seemed that my example was somewhat unconvincing. Let’s dig a bit further then. Let’s add Sharpe ratio The post

by Joseph Rickert In a recent post focused on plotting time series with the new dygraphs package, I did not show how easy it is to read financial data into R. However, in a thoughtful comment to the post, Achim Zeileis pointed out a number of features built into the basic R time series packages that everyone ought to...

One statistic which I find useful to form a first impression of a backtest is the success/winning percentage. Since it can mean different things, let’s be more precise: for a strategy over daily data, the winning percentage is the percentage of the days on which the strategy had positive returns (in other words, the strategy The post

Rotational strategies on ETFs have been a common occurrence on this blog, and I have been using something similar for real life trading for about two years now. Readers of this blog may have also noticed concerns about the stability of the computations of such strategies. At the end it turned out be a quirk The post

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