Do Vice-Presidential candidates have any effect on the outcome of Presidential elections in the US? Some past research suggested their impact was negligible, but the 2008 election seems to have changed all that, at least in the case Sarah Palin. As reported on the Everyday Politics blog, a new paper (co-authored by Revolution Analytics' CEO Norman Nie) looks at how voter recognition and opinion of vice-presidential candidates influenced the outcome of the election. They conclude:
We estimate the “Palin effect,” based on individual-level changes in favorability towards the vice-presidential nominee, and conclude that her campaign performance cost McCain just under 2% of the final vote share.
Follow the link below for more discussion about the paper.
Everyday Politics: More evidence of the Palin effect