Blog Archives

The Uncertainty of Predictions

October 2, 2013
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The Uncertainty of Predictions

There are many kinds of intervals in statistics.  To name a few of the common intervals: confidence intervals, prediction intervals, credible intervals, and tolerance intervals. Each are useful and serve their own purpose. I’ve been recently working on a couple of projects that involve making predictions from a regression model and I’ve been doing some

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Waiting in One Line or Multiple Lines

September 23, 2013
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Waiting in One Line or Multiple Lines

Whenever I go to the grocery store it always seems to be a lesson in statistics. I go get the things I need to buy and then  I try to select the checkout register that will decrease the amount of time I have to wait. Inevitably, I select the one line where there is some

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Profile Likelihood for New Jersey U.S. Senate Special Election

September 16, 2013
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Profile Likelihood for New Jersey U.S. Senate Special Election

As it stands right now Cory Booker has a very good chance of winning the New Jersey Special U.S. Senate election on October 16 to replace Frank Lautenberg and fill the remainder of his term for the next 15 months.  So with the election only about a month away I took advantage of some of

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A Monty Simulation

September 10, 2013
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A Monty Simulation

I was listening to Science Friday from Sep 6th. and one of the discussions by Ira Flatow was on the well known Monty Hall Problem.  This problem has been hashed out many times and in fact I was first introduced to the probability aspects of the problem while taking my introductory to statistics class when

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The Eve of the NYC Democratic Mayoral Primary Election

September 9, 2013
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The Eve of the NYC Democratic Mayoral Primary Election

It is the eve of the New York City Democratic mayoral primary election.  This is a simple follow-up on my post from last Friday as I was curious how the final pre-Election Day polling was going to fall.  It’s fairly clear who is going to get the most votes.  Though we have a very good

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Probability of Avoiding a Run-off in the NYC 2013 Democratic Primary Election

September 6, 2013
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Probability of Avoiding a Run-off in the NYC 2013 Democratic Primary Election

The New York City mayoral Democratic primary election is taking place this coming Tuesday (Sep. 10th) and there are several candidates in the running. Bill de Blasio is the front runner and is expected to win. However, there is a catch. Even if he takes the plurality of the vote he may not actually win.

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The Beta Prior, Likelihood, and Posterior

September 4, 2013
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The Beta Prior, Likelihood, and Posterior

The Beta distribution (and more generally the Dirichlet) are probably my favorite distributions.  However, sometimes only limited information is available when trying set up the distribution.  For example maybe you only know the lowest likely value, the highest likely value and the median, as a measure of center.  That information is sufficient to construct a

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Passing-Bablok Regression: R code for SAS users

September 2, 2013
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Passing-Bablok Regression: R code for SAS users

While at the Joint Statistical Meeting a few weeks ago I was talking to a friend about various aspects to clinical trials. He indicated that no current R package was able to perfectly reproduce Passing-Bablok (PB) regression so that it exactly matched SAS. He ultimately wrote a couple of functions and kindly shared them with

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When Discussing Confidence Level With Others…

August 13, 2013
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When Discussing Confidence Level With Others…

This post spawned from a discussion I had the other day. Confidence intervals are notoriously a difficult topic for those unfamiliar with statistics. I can’t really think of another statistical topic that is so widely published in newspaper articles, television, and elsewhere that so few people really understand. It’s been this way since the moment

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Data Scientists and Statisticians: Can’t We All Just Get Along

August 9, 2013
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Data Scientists and Statisticians: Can’t We All Just Get Along

It seems that the title “data science” has taken the world by storm.  It’s a title that conjures up almost mystical abilities of a person garnering information from oceans of data with ease.  It’s where a data scientist can wave his or her hand like a Jedi Knight and simply tell the data what it

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