Blog Archives

Simulating Multiple Asset Paths in R

November 5, 2012
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Simulating Multiple Asset Paths in R

I recently came across the Optimal Rebalancing Strategy Using Dynamic Programming for Institutional Portfolios by W. Sun, A. Fan, L. Chen, T. Schouwenaars, M. Albota paper that examines the cost of different rebablancing methods. For example, one might use calendar rebalancing: i.e. rebalance every month / quarter / year. Or one might use threshold rebalancing:

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Regime Detection

October 31, 2012
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Regime Detection

Regime Detection comes handy when you are trying to decide which strategy to deploy. For example there are periods (regimes) when Trend Following strategies work better and there are periods when Mean Reversion strategies work better. Today I want to show you one way to detect market Regimes. To detect market Regimes, I will fit

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Modeling Couch Potato strategy

October 25, 2012
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Modeling Couch Potato strategy

I first read about the Couch Potato strategy in the MoneySense magazine. I liked this simple strategy because it was easy to understand and easy to manage. The Couch Potato strategy is similar to the Permanent Portfolio strategy that I have analyzed previously. The Couch Potato strategy invests money in the given proportions among different

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Company Valuation using Discounted Cash Flows

October 18, 2012
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Company Valuation using Discounted Cash Flows

Today I want to show a simple example of how we can value a company using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis. The idea is to compute the company’s Intrinsic Value based on the discounted future cash-flows. To compute future cash-flows I will use the historical Free Cash Flow growth rate. To compute present value of

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Permanent Portfolio – Transaction Cost and better Risk Parity

October 9, 2012
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Permanent Portfolio – Transaction Cost and better Risk Parity

I want to address comments that were asked in my last post, Permanent Portfolio – Simple Tools, about Permanent Portfolio strategy. Specifically: The impact of transaction costs on the perfromance and Create a modified version of risk allocation portfolio that distributes weights across 3 asset classes: stocks(SPY), gold(GLD), and treasuries(TLT), and only invests into cash(SHY)

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Weekend Reading – Facebook’s P/E ratio

October 7, 2012
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Weekend Reading – Facebook’s P/E ratio

The Barron’s article Still Too Pricey by Andrew Bary looks at the share price of the Facebook and based on the P/E ration valuation metrics concludes that even at the current prices, stock is overvalued. I want to show how to do this type of fundamental analysis using the Systematic Investor Toolbox. First let’s load

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Permanent Portfolio – Simple Tools

October 4, 2012
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Permanent Portfolio – Simple Tools

I have previously described and back-tested the Permanent Portfolio strategy based on the series of posts at the GestaltU blog. Today I want to show how we can improve the Permanent Portfolio strategy perfromance using following simple tools: Volatility targeting Risk allocation Tactical market filter First, let’s load the historical prices for the stocks(SPY), gold(GLD),

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Weekend Reading – Gold in October

September 28, 2012
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Weekend Reading – Gold in October

I recently came across the “An early Halloween for gold traders” article by Mark Hulbert. I have discussed this type of seasonality analysis in my presentation at R/Finance this year. It is very easy to run the seasonality analysis using the Systematic Investor Toolbox. This confirms that October have been historically bad for Gold, but

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Calling Minimum Correlation Algorithm from Excel using RExcel & VBA

September 26, 2012
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Calling Minimum Correlation Algorithm from Excel using RExcel & VBA

I want to show the example of calling the Minimum Correlation Algorithm from Excel. I will use RExcel to connect R and Excel and will create a small VBA cell array function to communicate between Excel and R. I have previously discussed the concept of connecting R and Excel in the “Calling Systematic Investor Toolbox

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Minimum Correlation Algorithm Speed comparison

September 25, 2012
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Minimum Correlation Algorithm Speed comparison

The Minimum Correlation Algorithm is a heuristic method discovered by David Varadi. Below I will benchmark the execution speed of 2 versions of the Minimum Correlation Algorithm versus the traditional minimum variance optimization that relies on solving a quadratic programming problem. I have run the code above for n=10 (10 assets), n=100 (100 assets), n=500

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