Blog Archives

Research position in forecasting renewable energy

February 4, 2011
By

I don’t normally post job ads except when they are within my own research group. But this one is close to my research interests, and I’d like to help the institution find someone good for the role, so I’m making an exception. It is a position for a post-doctoral researcher at the Centre for Energy

Read more »

Six places left for the forecasting workshop

January 10, 2011
By

There are six places left for the forecasting workshop I am giving in Switzerland in June. If you were thinking of going, book in fast!

Read more »

CrossValidated Journal Club

December 21, 2010
By

Journal Clubs are a great way to learn new research ideas and to keep up with the literature. The idea is that a group of people get together every week or so to discuss a paper of joint interest. This can happen within your own research group or department, or virtually online. There is now

Read more »

Forecasting workshop: Switzerland, June 2011

December 6, 2010
By
Forecasting workshop: Switzerland, June 2011

I will be running a workshop on Statistical Forecasting: Principles and Practice in Switzerland, 20-22 June 2011. Check out the venue: Waldhotel Doldenhorn, Kandersteg! So if you fancy a trip to the beautiful Swiss Alps next June, read on… Outline Forecasting is required in many situations: deciding whether to build another power generation plant in

Read more »

Data visualization videos

November 29, 2010
By

Probably everyone has seen Hans Rosling’s famous TED talk by now. I recently came across a couple of other exceptional talks on data visualization: Hans Rosling again: Let my dataset change your mindset. If only all statistics lecturers were this dynamic! David McCandless: The beauty of data visualization. Not so exciting as Hans, but some great

Read more »

Initializing the Holt-Winters method

November 29, 2010
By
Initializing the Holt-Winters method

The Holt-Winters method is a popular and effective approach to forecasting seasonal time series. But different implementations will give different forecasts, depending on how the method is initialized and how the smoothing parameters are selected. In this post I will discuss various initialization methods. Suppose the time series is denoted by and the seasonal period

Read more »

Forecast estimation, evaluation and transformation

November 9, 2010
By
Forecast estimation, evaluation and transformation

I’ve had a few emails lately about forecast evaluation and estimation criteria. Here is one I received today, along with some comments. I have a rather simple question regarding the use of MSE as opposed to MAD and MAPE. If the parameters of a time series model are estimated by minimizing MSE, why do we

Read more »

CrossValidated launched!

November 4, 2010
By
CrossValidated launched!

The CrossValidated Q&A site is now out of beta and the new design and site name is live. New design The new design looks great, thanks to Jin Yang, our designer-in-residence. Note the normal density icon for accepted answers and the site icon depicting a 5-fold cross-validation (light green for the test set and dark

Read more »

Different results from different software

October 26, 2010
By

I’ve had a few questions on this topic lately. Here is an email received today: I use Eviews to estimate time series, but I have been checking out R recently, and your Forecast package. I cannot understand why 2 similar equations in Eviews and R are giving different estimated output. Your insights will be invaluable

Read more »

How to avoid annoying a referee

October 22, 2010
By

It’s not a good idea to annoy the referees of your paper. They make recommendations to the editor about your work and it is best to keep them happy. There is an interesting discussion on stats.stackexchange.com on this subject. This inspired my own list below. Explain what you’ve done clearly, avoiding unnecessary jargon. Don’t claim

Read more »