Blog Archives

The hidden benefits of open-source software

November 29, 2015
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I’ve been having discussions with colleagues and university administration about the best way for universities to manage home-grown software. The traditional business model for software is that we build software and sell it to everyone willing to pay. Very often, that leads to a software company spin-off that has little or nothing to do with the university that nurtured the

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Piecewise linear trends

October 27, 2015
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Piecewise linear trends

I prepared the following notes for a consulting client, and I thought they might be of interest to some other people too. Let denote the value of the time series at time , and suppose we wish to fit a trend with correlated errors of the form     where represents the possibly nonlinear trend

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forecast package v6.2

October 20, 2015
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It is a while since I last updated the CRAN version of the forecast package, so I uploaded the latest version (6.2) today. The github version remains the most up-to-date version and is already two commits ahead of the CRAN version. This update is mostly bug fixes and additional error traps. The full ChangeLog is

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Stanford seminar

October 7, 2015
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Stanford seminar

I gave a seminar at Stanford today. Slides are below. It was definitely the most intimidating audience I’ve faced, with Jerome Friedman, Trevor Hastie, Brad Efron, Persi Diaconis, Susan Holmes, David Donoho and John Chambers all present (and probably other famous names I’ve missed). I’ll be giving essentially the same talk at UC Davis on

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Reproducibility in computational research

September 25, 2015
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Jane Frazier spoke at our research team meeting today on “Reproducibility in computational research”. We had a very stimulating and lively discussion about the issues involved. One interesting idea was that reproducibility is on a scale, and we can all aim to move further along the scale towards making our own research more reproducible. For

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Chinese R conference

September 24, 2015
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I will be speaking at the Chinese R conference in Nanchang, to be held on 24–25 October, on “Forecasting Big Time Series Data using R”. Details (for those who can read Chinese) are at china-r.org.

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Upcoming talks in California

September 22, 2015
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I’m back in California for the next couple of weeks, and will give the following talk at Stanford and UC-Davis. Optimal forecast reconciliation for big time series data Time series can often be naturally disaggregated in a hierarchical or grouped structure. For example, a manufacturing company can disaggregate total demand for their products by country of

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Mathematical annotations on R plots

September 2, 2015
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Mathematical annotations on R plots

I’ve always struggled with using plotmath via the expression function in R for adding mathematical notation to axes or legends. For some reason, the most obvious way to write something never seems to work for me and I end up using trial and error in a loop with far too many iterations. So I am

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Murphy diagrams in R

July 16, 2015
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Murphy diagrams in R

At the recent International Symposium on Forecasting, held in Riverside, California, Tillman Gneiting gave a great talk on “Evaluating forecasts: why proper scoring rules and consistent scoring functions matter”. It will be the subject of an IJF invited paper in due course. One of the things he talked about was the “Murphy diagram” for comparing forecasts,

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Useful tutorials

June 30, 2015
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There are some tools that I use regularly, and I would like my research students and post-docs to learn them too. Here are some great online tutorials that might help. ggplot tutorial from Winston Chang Writing an R package from Karl Broman Rmarkdown from RStudio Shiny from RStudio git/github guide from Karl Broman minimal make tutorial from Karl

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