Blog Archives

Crazy RUT in Academic Context Why Trend is Not Your Friend

June 26, 2012
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Crazy RUT in Academic Context Why Trend is Not Your Friend

In response to Where are the Fat Tails?, reader vonjd very helpfully referred me to this paper The Trend is Not Your Friend! Why Empirical Timing Success is Determined by the Underlying’s Price Characteristics and Market Efficiency is Irrelevant by P...

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Where are the Fat Tails?

June 19, 2012
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Where are the Fat Tails?

In Crazy RUT, I started to explore why the moving average strategy has failed for the last 2 decades on the Russell 2000.  I still do not have an answer, but I thought looking at skewness and kurtosis might help explain some of the challenge of be...

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Cubism Horizon Charts in R

June 15, 2012
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Cubism Horizon Charts in R

Like many, I have been in awe of the d3.js and cubism.js visualization packages created by Mike Bostock. Mike Bostock @ Square talks about Time Series Visualization from Librato on Vimeo. The charts are beautiful and extraordinarily functional, so I th...

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Pretty Correlation Map of PIMCO Funds

June 14, 2012
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Pretty Correlation Map of PIMCO Funds

As PIMCO expands beyond fixed income, I thought it might be helpful to look at correlation of PIMCO mutual funds to the S&P 500.  Unfortunately due to the large number of funds, I cannot use the chart.Correlation from PerformanceAnalytics.&nbs...

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Statistics of Drawdown–paper and post

June 11, 2012
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Statistics of Drawdown–paper and post

Thank so much to Patrick Burns’ post Variability in maximum drawdown.  He starts with “Maximum drawdown is blazingly variable,” which I say is why money management is so blazingly difficult.  After spending a lot of time thinking about ...

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knitr Performance Report 4

June 8, 2012
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knitr Performance Report 4

please see knitR Performance Report 3 (really with knitr) and dprint, knitr Performance Report–Attempt 3, knitr Performance Report-Attempt 2 and knitr Performance Report-Attempt 1 Here is another iteration of the ongoing performance reporting attempt...

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Evaluation of Tactical Approaches

June 8, 2012
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Evaluation of Tactical Approaches

Tactical approaches are often chosen based on the best cumulative return which implicitly incorporates significant hindsight bias.  Just because an approach dominates for a period of time does not indicate that it will be the best approach.  ...

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System from Trend Following Factors

June 1, 2012
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System from Trend Following Factors

As I thought more about Trend Following Factors from Hsieh and Fung, I thought that the trend following factors might indicate a state/regime for the equity markets that could potentially offer momentum-style timing signals for a system on the S&P ...

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Conditional Drawdown Exploration

May 31, 2012
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Conditional Drawdown Exploration

After reading Strub, Issam S., Trade Sizing Techniques for Drawdown and Tail Risk Control (May 21, 2012), I thought I should try to tie this with 2 other good R pieces on Conditional Drawdown: http://systematicinvestor.wordpress.com/2011/11/01/minimiz...

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Trend Following Factors from Hsieh and Fung

May 25, 2012
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Trend Following Factors from Hsieh and Fung

The beauty of R and academic replication is that on the Friday before Memorial Day weekend I can read an academic paper and do some analysis all before breakfast.  In this case, the paper is Hsieh, David A. and Fung, William, The Risk in Hedge F...

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