Blog Archives

Chaos in the Financial Markets?

July 6, 2010
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Chaos in the Financial Markets?

Over the years I've had quite a few interested individuals ask me about Chaos and its applications towards trading. Well, as hidden markov models and speech processing were made popular by James Simons and his team at Renaissance Technologies, one cou...

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Quantitative Candlestick Pattern Recognition (HMM, Baum Welch, and all that)

June 10, 2010
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Quantitative Candlestick Pattern Recognition (HMM, Baum Welch, and all that)

Fig 1. Clustering based approach to candlestick Pattern Recognition. I've been reading a book titled, 'the Quants,' that I'm sure will tantalize many traders with some of the ideas embedded within. Most notably (IMO), the notion that Renaissance's Jame...

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The Kalman Filter For Financial Time Series

May 25, 2010
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The Kalman Filter For Financial Time Series

Every now and then I come across a tool that is so bogged down in pages of esoteric mathematical calculations, it becomes difficult to get even a simple grasp of how or why they might be useful. Even worse, you exhaustively search the internet to find ...

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Is it possible to get a causal smoothed filter ?

May 12, 2010
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Is it possible to get a causal smoothed filter ?

Although I haven't been all that much of a fan of moving average based methods, I've observed some discussions and made some attempts to determine if it's possible to get an actual smoothed filter with a causal model. Anyone who's worked on financial ...

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Wavelet Spectrogram Non-Stationary Financial Time Series analysis using R (TTR/Quantmod/dPlR) with USDEUR

April 28, 2010
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Wavelet Spectrogram Non-Stationary Financial Time Series analysis using R (TTR/Quantmod/dPlR) with USDEUR

I've been doing some research lately regarding types of spectral imaging and decomposition techniques that apply to non-stationary signals. As mentioned earlier, one of the major problems with the simple fourier analysis is that the basis functions ext...

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Why isn’t my 2X Ultra ETF keeping pace with the market and what is path asymmetry (R ex)? Part 2

April 3, 2010
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Why isn’t my 2X Ultra ETF keeping pace with the market and what is path asymmetry (R ex)? Part 2

I created an example to show how the theory from part 1 might be applied using S&P500 as a proxy for performance. Just in case anyone viewing is not familiar with terminal wealth, it is the final (usually compounded) ending value (hence, terminal) of ...

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Why isn’t my 2X Ultra ETF keeping pace with the market and what is path asymmetry (R ex)?

March 31, 2010
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Why isn’t my 2X Ultra ETF keeping pace with the market and what is path asymmetry (R ex)?

I've been reading a few articles lately, lambasting ultra ETFs for not keeping up with markets and ascribing the problem to weird unexplainable reasons such as portfolio derivative re-balancing and negative drift. I thought it would be nice to revisit...

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Modified Donchian Band Trend Follower using R, Quantmod, TTR -Part 2: Parameter Sweep Sensitivity over long run

March 24, 2010
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Modified Donchian Band Trend Follower using R, Quantmod, TTR  -Part 2: Parameter Sweep Sensitivity over long run

Here is a small update to the Donchian Channel type system I displayed in the last post.Fig 1. Sensitivity of Net Combined L/S Gain to parameter n.Using the S&P500 index as a proxy for the market, a simulation was run over the lifetime of the index. No...

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Modified Donchian Band Trend Follower using R, Quantmod, TTR

March 12, 2010
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Modified Donchian Band Trend Follower using R, Quantmod, TTR

I've been toying around with the examples given on the FOSS trading site for some of the great work they've put together in the Quantmod and TTR packages. Those viewers who are looking for a nice (and free) backtesting suite to possibly complement s...

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FFT (Fast Fourier Transform) of time series — promises and pitfalls towards trading

February 24, 2010
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FFT (Fast Fourier Transform) of time series  — promises and pitfalls towards trading

Fig 1. FFT transformed time series (EBAY) reconstructed with first three and twenty harmonics, respectively.I see quite a few traders interested in advanced signal processing techniques. It is often instructive to see why they may or may not be useful....

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