Blog Archives

Baseball: Probability of winning conditional on runs, hits, walks and errors

September 2, 2014
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If a team scores X runs, what's the probability it will win the game? The post Baseball: Probability of winning conditional on runs, hits, walks and errors appeared first on Decision Science News.

Which airline should you be loyal to?

July 2, 2013
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LOYALTY PROGRAM CHOICE BASED ON DEPARTURE COUNT If you read Decision Science News, you’re probably a professor or grad student or researcher or policy type who flies around a lot to conferences, symposia, workshops, tutorials, summer schools, and all-hands meetings. You travel the globe to give talks and work with co-authors. All this flying around The post Which...

1.5 percent of doctors, a quarter of malpratice reports

May 14, 2013
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Some doctors receive more malpractice reports than others. Just how unequal is the distribution of malpractice reports? The post 1.5 percent of doctors, a quarter of malpratice reports appeared first on Decision Science News.

To pre-pay or not to pre-pay for gas when renting a car?

February 20, 2013
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One question we get asked a lot is whether it's worth it to pre-pay for the tank of gas when renting a car. At first, blush it seems like something you should never do. In the best case, you pay market rate for gas, and in the worst case, you pay for a tank of gas you never consume (what...

Stadium / home team effects in making field goals

February 13, 2013
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We take on a reader question of whether the stadium / home team matters for making a field goal. We pulled up the data on every field goal since 2002 (over 10,000) of them and plotted the probability of scoring as a function of the stadium in which the field goal was kicked. The post Stadium / home...

January 28, 2013
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We looked at NFL punts before on Decision Science News. That's old news. Field goals are the new hotness, and Super Bowl Sunday is coming up, so let's look at a kicker's chances. We've taken the same data set and looked at a kicker's chances of getting the ball through the uprights depending on the yard line the kick is...

Every NFL punt since 2002

January 9, 2013
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The site reddit told us about data on every single NFL (U.S. National Football League) play since 2002. We read it in and did an analysis of punting. The results are beautiful. The post Every NFL punt since 2002 appeared first on Decision Science News.

Even more Microsoft Postdocs

December 18, 2012
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Microsoft Research NYC seeks outstanding applicants for 2-year postdoctoral researcher positions. We welcome applicants with a strong academic record in one of the following areas: * Computational social science: http://research.microsoft.com/cssnyc * Online experimental social science: http://research.microsoft.com/oess_nyc * Algorithmic economics and market design: http://research.microsoft.com/algorithmic-economics/ * Machine learning: http://research.microsoft.com/mlnyc/ The post Even more Microsoft Postdocs appeared first on Decision Science News.

Microsoft Research NYC seeks quants and programmers for a postdoc in online social science

December 10, 2012
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Microsoft Research NYC seeks outstanding applicants with strong quantitative and programming skills for a postdoctoral researcher position in the area of online experimental social science. Deadline for Full Consideration: January 11, 2013 The post Microsoft Research NYC seeks quants and programmers for a postdoc in online social science appeared first on Decision Science News.

Follow-up: So … daylight savings time does not minimize variance in sunrises

December 3, 2012
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Last week we posted a nice theory about daylight savings time, in particular, that its dates were chosen to reduce variance in the time of sunrise. It looked plausible from the graph. We were talking to our Microsoft Research colleague Jake Hofman who suggested "why don't you just find the optimal dates to change the clock by one hour?" So...