Blog Archives

Reproducibility and randomness

May 11, 2013
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Reproducibility and randomness

With Stéphane Tufféry, we were working this week on a chapter of a book, entitled Statistical Learning in Actuarial Science. The chapter should be based on R functions, and we wanted to reproduce some outputs he previously obtained with SAS. The good thing is that even complex functions (logistic regression, regression trees, etc) produce the same kind of outputs....

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Poisson regression on non-integers

May 7, 2013
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Poisson regression on non-integers

In the course on claims reserving techniques, I did mention the use of Poisson regression, even if incremental payments were not integers. For instance, we did consider incremental triangles > source("http://perso.univ-rennes1.fr/arthur.charpentier/bases.R") > INC=PAID > INC=PAID-PAID > INC 3209 1163 39 17 7 21 3367 1292 37 24 10 NA 3871...

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LaTeX in R graphs

May 3, 2013
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LaTeX in R graphs

A nice post was recently published on the rsnippets blog, about the tikzDevice R package. This package is – indeed – awesome. Even if it has been removed from the CRAN website. Of course, it can be download from the archive folder, on http://cran.r-project.org/…, but also (for a more recent version)  on http://download.r-forge.r-project.org/…. But first, it is necessary to install...

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Animation, from R to LaTeX

May 3, 2013
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Animation, from R to LaTeX

Just a short post, to share some codes used to generate animated graphs, with R. Assume that we would like to illustrate the law of large number, and the convergence of the average value from binomial sample. We can generate samples  using > n=200 > k=1000 > set.seed(1) > X=matrix(sample(0:1,size=n*k,replace=TRUE),n,k) Each row  will be a trajectory of heads and...

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In three months, I’ll be in Vegas (trying to win against the house)

April 20, 2013
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In three months, I’ll be in Vegas (trying to win against the house)

In fact, I’m going there with my family and some friends, including two probabilists (I mean professionals, I am merely an amateur), with this incredible challenge: will I be able to convince  probabilists to go to play at the Casino? Actually, I also want to study them carefully, to understand how we should play optimally. For example, I hope...

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Reserving with negative increments in triangles

April 11, 2013
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Reserving with negative increments in triangles

A few months ago, I did published a post on negative values in triangles, and how to deal with them, when using a Poisson regression (the post was published in French). The idea was to use a translation technique: Fit a model not on ‘s but on , for some , Use that model to make predictions, and then...

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Easter

March 31, 2013
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Easter

This morning, there was an interesting post entitled “why does Easter move around so much?” online on http://economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/… In my time series classes, I keep saying that sometimes, series can exhibit seasonlity, but the seasonal effect can be quite irregular. It is the cas for river levels, where snowmelt can have a huge impact, and it is irregular. Similarly, chocolate sales...

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Benford law and lognormal distributions

March 28, 2013
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Benford law and lognormal distributions

Benford’s law is nowadays extremely popular (see e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/…). It is usually claimed that, for a given set data set, changing units does not affect the distribution of the first digit. Thus, it should be related to scale invariant distributions. Heuristically, scale (or unit) invariance means that the density of the measure  (or probability function) should be proportional to...

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Rationality, and MS Excel (and other calculators)

March 27, 2013
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Rationality, and MS Excel (and other calculators)

This morning, Mathieu had a nice experience in his course on computational method in actuarial science. But let us start with some mathematical formal definitions. First, recall that is – somehow – a standard expression. No one should be surprised to see such an expression. Generally (as explained in http://en.wikipedia.org/… ), this function is defined only when . The...

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Happy St Patrick’s Day

March 17, 2013
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Happy St Patrick’s Day

I love Saint Patrick’s Day for, at least, two reasons. The first one is that, on March 17th, you can play out loud The Pogues, the second one is that it’s the only day in the year when I really enjoy getting a Guiness in a pub. And Guiness is important in statistical science (I did mention a couple...

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