Blog Archives

Ruin probability and infinite time

March 27, 2012
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Ruin probability and infinite time

A couple of weeks ago, I had a discussion with a practitioner, working in some financial company, about ruin, and infinite time. And it remind me a weird result. Well, not a weird result, but a result I found disturbing, at first, when I was a stud...

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Do we appreciate sunbathing in Spring ?

March 22, 2012
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Do we appreciate sunbathing in Spring ?

We are currently experiencing an extremely hot month in Montréal (and more generally in North America). Looking at people having a beer, and starting the first barbecue of the year, I was wondering: if we asked people if global warming was a good ...

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Visualization in regression analysis

February 23, 2012
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Visualization in regression analysis

Visualization is a key to success in regression analysis. This is one of the (many) reasons I am also suspicious when I read an article with a quantitative (econometric) analysis without any graph. Consider for instance the following dataset, obtai...

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Visualization in regression analysis

February 23, 2012
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Visualization in regression analysis

Visualization is a key to success in regression analysis. This is one of the (many) reasons I am also suspicious when I read an article with a quantitative (econometric) analysis without any graph. Consider for instance the following dataset, obtained from http://data.worldbank.org/, with, for each country, the GDP per capita (in some common currency) and the infant mortality rate...

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MAT8886 reducing dimension using factors

February 16, 2012
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MAT8886 reducing dimension using factors

First, let us recall a standard result from linear algebra: "real symmetric matrices are diagonalizable by orthogonal matrices". Thus, any variance-covariance matrix can be written since a variance-covariance matrix is also definite positive. In ...

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MAT8886 the Dirichlet distribution

February 15, 2012
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MAT8886 the Dirichlet distribution

In the course, still introducing some concept of dependent distributions, we will talk about the Dirichlet distribution (which is a distribution over the simplex of ). Let denote the Gamma distribution with density (on ) Let denote independent...

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MAT8886 elliptically contoured distributions

February 15, 2012
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MAT8886 elliptically contoured distributions

(This article was first published on Freakonometrics - Tag - R-english, and kindly contributed to R-bloggers) Last week, we've introduced the concept of exchangeable variables, i.e. satisfying for any matrix  , i.e. is a permutation matrix: belongs to the orthogonal group, , and with elements in . It is possible to extend that family, considering all matrices in the...

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MAT8886 exchangeability, credit risk and risk measures

February 10, 2012
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MAT8886 exchangeability, credit risk and risk measures

Exchangeability is an extremely concept, since (most of the time) analytical expressions can be derived. But it can also be used to observe some unexpected behaviors, that we will discuss later on with a more general setting. For instance, in a old...

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MAT8886 a short word on profile likelihood

February 7, 2012
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MAT8886 a short word on profile likelihood

Profile likelihood is an interesting theory to visualize and compute confidence interval for estimators (see e.g. Venzon & Moolgavkar (1988)). As we will use is, we will plot But more generally, it is possible to consider where . Then (...

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On linear models with no constant and R2

February 2, 2012
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On linear models with no constant and R2

In econometrics course we always say to our students that "if you fit a linear model with no constant, then you might have trouble. For instance, you might have a negative R-squared". So I tried to find databases on the internet such that, when we ...

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