Monthly Archives: July 2012

Alternative to Monte Carlo Testing

July 4, 2012
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Alternative to Monte Carlo Testing

When we backtest a strategy on a portfolio, it is a simple analysis of a single period in time. There are ways to “stress test” a strategy such as monte carlo, random portfolios, or shuffling the returns in a random order. I could never really wrap my head around monte carlo and shuffling the returns … Continue reading...

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Three Questions about a Matrix of Coefficient Plots

July 4, 2012
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It's Independence Day in the U.S., so I am taking the day off, but I received the following request for advice and thought I'd pass it along to my readers. I wonder if you could help – I am trying to create 9 different coefficient plots , which repr...

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A tutorial on outlier detection techniques

July 4, 2012
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A tutorial on outlier detection techniques

by Yanchang Zhao, RDataMining.com There is an excellent tutorial on outlier detection techniques, presented by Hans-Peter Kriegel et al. at ACM SIGKDD 2010. It presents many popular outlier detection algorithms, most of which were published between mid 1990s and 2010, … Continue reading →

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The Higgs boson: 5-sigma and the concept of p-values

July 4, 2012
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The Higgs boson: 5-sigma and the concept of p-values

Why are physicists talking about 5-sigma, and what's it got to do with statistics? In this short post I'll explain what 5-sigma is and why it's not a measure of how certain scientist are that they've found the Higgs boson

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The Higgs boson: 5-sigma and the concept of p-values

July 4, 2012
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The Higgs boson: 5-sigma and the concept of p-values

Today’s announcement at CERN of the latest research on the Higgs boson was truly extraordinary. Not only was the scientific achievement remarkable, but medias reporting of 5-sigma as a measure of “certainty” was also truly remarkable. For instance, the science editor at the Swedish news paper Dagens Nyheter reported that a sigma of 4.9 equals a certainty of 99.99994 %, which obviously isn’t true,...

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Glmnet_1.8 uploaded to CRAN

July 4, 2012
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(by Trevor Hastie) Glmnet_1.8 uploaded to CRAN – This is a major revision, with two additional models included. 1) Multiresponse regression – family=”mgaussian” Here we have a matrix of M responses, and we fit a series of linear models in parallel. We use a group-lasso penalty on the set of M coefficients for each variable. This means they are...

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To the Basics: Bayesian Inference on A Binomial Proportion

July 4, 2012
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To the Basics: Bayesian Inference on A Binomial Proportion

Think of something observable – countable – that you care about with only one outcome or another. It could be the votes cast in a two-way election in your town, or the free throw shots the center on your favorite...

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Example of Factor Attribution

July 3, 2012
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Example of Factor Attribution

In the prior post, Factor Attribution 2, I have shown how Factor Attribution can be applied to decompose fund’s returns in to Market, Capitalization, and Value factors, the “three-factor model” of Fama and French. Today, I want to show you a different application of Factor Attribution. First, let’s run Factor Attribution on each the stocks

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RcppBDT 0.2.0

A new release of the RcppBDT package appeared on CRAN earlier today. RcppBDT uses Rcpp, and in particular the nifty Rcpp modules feature of wrapping C++ code for R just by declaring the (class or function) interfaces. It uses this to bring in some useful functions from Boost Date.Time to R so that one can do things like R> library(RcppBDT) R> sapply(2012:2016, function(year) +...

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The role of Statistics in the Higgs Boson discovery

July 3, 2012
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The role of Statistics in the Higgs Boson discovery

News is starting to leak that the Large Hadron Collider may have accomplished its primary mission of confirming the existence of the hypothesised and heretofore elusive subatomic particle, the Higgs Boson. And sure, billions of Euros worth of state-of-the-art high-energy machinery and an army of experimental and theoretical physicists probably had something to do with the discovery. But did...

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