Wide Receiver Gold Mining -Week 16

December 18, 2014
By

(This article was first published on Fantasy Football Analytics » R | Fantasy Football Analytics, and kindly contributed to R-bloggers)

The graph below summarizes the projections from a variety of sources. This week’s summary includes projections from: Fantasy Football Sharks, CBS’s Jamey Eisenberg, Fantasy Football Today, CBS’s Dave Richard, ESPN, Yahoo Sports, Picking Pros and Fox Sports.  For more details on WR gold mining and how to interpret the tables and graphs, see Chad’s post explaining gold mining.

Standard Scoring Leagues

From this graph be sure to notice:

  • Martavis Bryant, Josh Gordon, Doug Baldwin, Harry Douglas and Mohamed Sanu are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • Julio Jones, T.Y. Hilton, DeAndre Hopkins, Robert Woods and James Jones are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Odell Beckham, Charles Johnson, Jordan Matthews, Josh Gordon and Julio Jones are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

For those of you who prefer searchable tables instead of graphs, here is the same information presented in a table.

player tier pseudo-median lower bound upper bound risk
A.J. Green 7 13.9 11.8 15.6 3.9
Allen Hurns 3 6.8 5.0 9.1 4.1
Alshon Jeffery 6 11.0 8.5 13.3 4.8
Andre Johnson 3 6.7 5.2 8.8 3.5
Andrew Hawkins 1 4.4 3.0 5.9 2.9
Anquan Boldin 5 9.9 7.5 12.5 5.0
Antonio Brown 7 15.3 13.8 17.0 3.2
Brandon LaFell 4 8.1 5.2 10.9 5.6
Calvin Johnson 7 16.1 14.3 17.5 3.2
Cecil Shorts 3 6.6 4.0 9.6 5.6
Showing 1 to 10 of 60 entries
PreviousNext

Note that higher tiers represent higher pseudo-medians and that, due to the way the clustering algorithm works, there will not always be players in all 7 groups.

PPR Leagues

From this graph be sure to notice:

  • Charles Johnson, Harry Douglas, Doug Baldwin, Martavis Bryant and Mohamed Sanu are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • Julio Jones, T.Y. Hilton, DeAndre Hopkins, Eddie Royal and Robert Woods are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Odell Beckham, DeAndre Hopkins, Charles Johnson, Brandon LaFell and Josh Gordon are the five players with the largest downsidethis week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.



And, below we have the PPR table.

player tier pseudo-median lower bound upper bound risk
A.J. Green 7 20.3 17.2 22.7 5.4
Allen Hurns 2 11.2 8.8 13.9 5.2
Alshon Jeffery 6 16.9 14.5 20.4 5.9
Andre Johnson 2 12.0 9.8 13.9 4.2
Andrew Hawkins 2 8.0 5.5 9.8 4.3
Anquan Boldin 5 14.7 12.0 18.1 6.0
Antonio Brown 7 23.1 20.4 26.0 5.6
Brandon LaFell 5 13.5 10.0 15.5 5.5
Calvin Johnson 7 23.5 20.8 25.5 4.7
Cecil Shorts 2 11.2 9.0 14.7 5.7
Showing 1 to 10 of 60 entries
PreviousNext 

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